October 29, 2020

There is one college football pick tonight.
 

Fresno State +3 spread against Colorado State risking 3% of the bankroll.


Deciding Factors:

-Recency bias is playing a role here given Fresno State's most recent performance.
-This is Colorado State's first game this season under a new HC.
-The betting public is all over Colorado State in this matchup.

Final Thoughts:

Colorado State will be playing their first game of the season under new HC Steve Addazio and while they may adapt in time, it is going to take them a while to bring cohesion to a newly learned offensive system. Fresno State made a lot of mistakes in their opening loss to Hawaii and we expect that they will have watched a ton of game film to learn from those mistakes. The players will be motivated to atone for those mistakes and we expect to see a much more simplified game plan in the early going to establish a rhythm and build confidence in the players, especially QB Jake Haener.  

It's worth mentioning that Fresno State was also playing their first game of the season under a new head coach in last week's loss to Hawaii. We all saw how out-of-sorts they looked in that matchup and we wouldn't be surprised if Colorado State has a similar look tonight.  We're hard-pressed to believe Fresno State will drop back-to-back home games and expect them to come out with the victory tonight. The points are simply a bonus.