October 15, 2020
SPS has released a college football pick for tonight's NCAAF Matchup!
Arkansas State -3 spread (buy the half point) against Georgia State for 3% of the bankroll.
-Arkansas State has been using a 10--man rotation on defense for their first 4-games this season. Tonight they will have almost their full assortment of defensive players active. We should see a much improved defense than we have seen recently.
-This Red Wolves have played all of their game this season on the road! This will be the first home game for Arkansas State this season which will provide added motivation.
-Last year's victory was Georgia State's first over Arkansas State in the previous 6 meetings.
The perception of Arkansas State has been that they have struggled on defense this season, giving up 37 points to Memphis and 52 to Coastal Carolina, respectively. Memphis has one of the more potent offense in the country and Coastal Carolina is proving to be a breakout team this season with their upset win over UL Lafayette last night. The Red Wolves have been hampered on the defensive side of the ball having to rotate just 10-players on defense. That should change tonight as they are nearly back at full health and having fresh bodies to substitute in will help shore up some of their defensive inefficiencies. It's worth noting that both of those aforementioned losses also occurred on the road.
Keep in mind that while their defense has been somewhat inconsistent, the strength of this Arkansas State team has undoubtedly been their offense. They have an extremely explosive offense and have been able to move the football downfield consistently. They also hold a win over a legit Big 12 contender in Kansas State, which is looking more impressive as K-State continues to pile up wins and stifle opposing offenses. Georgia State is coming off back-to-back wins, with their most recent being an impressive offensive display against East Carolina. We feel that that performance is going to slightly skew the perception of this team heading into this matchup and overvalue them. This should be a close, offensive matchup given the high total listed, however we view Arkansas as the better overall team and giving up just a FG at home has quite a bit of value in what could be a shootout.
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