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October 10, 2020

SPS has also released 6 college football plays for Saturday's matchups!

#1: Take Texas A&M +7 spread (buy the half point) against Florida for 3% of the bankroll.

Determining Factors:

-A&M players will be more motivated in this contest while some Florida players may be "buying into the hype" that is starting to surround them.

-Jimbo Fisher's seat is starting to get hot. He knows this is a situation where he must win to quiet all of the noise.

-Perception of these two teams are on opposite sides of the spectrum. Many are high on Florida after a few performances, while other have given up on Texas A&M. This is a spot to be a bit contrarian.

Final thoughts:

-Too many points to lay against a team with their backs up against the wall. We have seen A&M pull out some impressive performances and cover against the likes of Clemson and Alabama in years past. This is one of those same situations. A&M has the capability to pull off the upset.


#2 :Take Iowa State -12 spread against Texas Tech for 3% of the bankroll.

Determining Factors:

-The uncertainty at the QB position is going to cause issues for Texas Tech. Bowman won't be 100% if if play and Colombi won't have enough experience to face a physical Iowa State defense.

-Texas Tech has given up 1,040 passing yards and 11 touchdowns already this season.

-Brock Purdy toasted Texas Tech a season ago for 378 yards and 3 touchdowns and has another year under his belt.

Final thoughts:

-Texas Tech likes to play at an up-tempo pace and rely very little on time of possession. They like to move fast and strike big, which is the opposite style of which Iowa State plays. Iowa State is a physical team that plays at a very methodical pace and relies heavily on play-action passes. On defense, Iowa State is exactly the type of team that Texas Tech has historically struggled against. With the question mark that is the starting QB situation for Tech, this should be a game where Iowa State's defense make things tough on either Colombi or Bowman which allows them to create separation on the scoreboard.


#3: Take TCU -8.5 spread against Kansas State for 3% of the bankroll.

Determining Factors:

-Skylar Thompson (if he plays) won't be 100% and backups Will Howard and Nick Ast will have problems against a solid TCU defense. TCU is not Texas Tech when it comes to defensive inefficiencies. 

-Max Duggan is one of the more talented and exciting QBs that no one is talking about....yet.

Final thoughts:

-TCU is the more talented team on paper and the only thing that is concerning about this matchup is a potential handover after coming away with a win against the Longhorns last week. If they can avoid a hangover, they should be able to stifle an inconsistent Wildcat offense and win this one by double-digits.


#4: Take Navy +4 spread (buy the half point) against Temple for 3% of the bankroll.

Determining Factors:

-This is Temple's first game of the season. It will take some time for the players to adjust playing at "game speed".

-Navy's Triple-Option is a daunting form of offense to defend, especially when a team has yet to play a game. One missed assignment will allow the Midshipmen to rattle off some big plays on the ground.

-This spread is more about Navy's recent performances than a talent disparity between these two teams.

Final thoughts:

-This year's Navy team certainly hasn't played like the team we have been accustomed to seeing the past few seasons. They were blown out by both BYU and Air Force and we feel that may have a lingering effect on the perception of this team. When their offense is moving, like it was in their come from behind victory over Tulane, they are a tough team to stop. If Navy can get out to a lead and allow their offense to control the tempo, they have the ability to not only keep within this number, but could win this game outright.


#5: Take Mississippi State +3 spread against Kentucky for 3% of the bankroll.

Determining Factors:

-People have been high on Kentucky this season, despite their 0-3 record. We don't really see it. They continue to make self-induced mistakes which cost them games.

-The Bulldogs are coming off a head-scratching loss against Arkansas so public perception is low.

-Mike Leach is the better coach in this matchup and will have his team ready after their perfromance a week ago.

Final thoughts:

-The Bulldogs may be coming off a loss, but that's how things go in the Mike Leach air-raid style offense. Arkansas used a 3-2-6 defensive base which nullified everything that KJ Costello was able to do under center and they were able to force turnovers. Expect Mike Leach to have a game plan against that type of defensive formation and put a plan in place which will allow Costello to carve up the Kentucky secondary much like they did against LSU. Kentucky has 0 takeaways on the season and that's what they will need if they want to have any shot at beating the Bulldogs in this matchup.  


#6: Take Clemson -15 spread against Miami for 3% of the bankroll.

Determining Factors:

-Miami has been impressive and have been receiving a lot of media hype coming into this matchup. Hype is not a good thing in the world of sports betting.

-People forget how good this Clemson team really is. This is the type of matchup that will make people remember.

Final thoughts:

-Miami is an unproven team at this moment. Yes, D'Eriq King is an X-factor and exciting play maker on offense, however, he has never seen anything like this Clemson defense. Clemson is head and shoulder better than most teams in the country. they have been beating teams handily and have been doing so without much effort. This is the type of challenge that will get Clemson attention and motivate them to put a beating on Miami. Many are expecting this to be a closely contested contest. It may be for the first half or 3 quarters, but come the end, Clemson will keep pouring things on and win this one by 17+

Bankroll Tutorial:

Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.

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