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November 5, 2020

SPS sees value in 1 college football pick tonight.


Utah State +17.5 spread against Nevada for 3% of the bankroll.

Final Thoughts:

Utah State is 0-2 both SU and ATS this season and will now be taking to the road to take on a Nevada team that is 2-0 both SU and ATS and has exceeded expectations in their performances thus far this season. This is an ideal buy low / sell high situation. For the most part, a majority of people believe that a team is quantified by their most recent performance and that because they had a poor performance in their last game / pair of game, that that trend will automatically continue. It's a classic case of recency bias. Both Utah State and Nevada fall into those categories, except on different ends of the spectrum. Nevada has been playing extremely well this season and the expectation is that they will continue their high-level of play and blowing teams out. However, we feel that they are more likely to a regression in their level of play, just as we expect Utah State to have an improvement from their most recent performances.

Utah State has a history of playing conference opponents close and we wouldn't be surprised if that was the case again here. In their first two games of the season, they faced extremely stout defenses in both Boise St and SDSU. The Aggies should have a much easier time tonight moving the football against this somewhat suspect Nevada defense. There's no question that Nevada could win this game in a blowout and that is certainly a concern, however, given everything we see surrounding this matchup, we feel there's a better likelihood of the Aggies "surprising" everyone and making this a competitive game. We feel this is simply too many points for Nevada to lay, especially when it comes down to garbage time and a backdoor cover becomes a serious possibility. We believe this line is just a bit inflated and the points should come into play.


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