Members Only

January 7, 2018

There is one pick tonight.  

 

Clemson +6 spread (buy the half point) against Alabama for 3% of the bankroll.

The Alabama Crimson Tide has been a team that has gotten a lot of hype all season long. They are the 2018 National Champions. They have long been known to have an NFL -caliber defense. They don't lose often. Now this year, they have a QB in Tua Tagovailoa that nearly won the Heisman and has added another dimension to an already dangerous offense. There is a lot to like about Alabama heading into the title game, however, there is also a lot to like about their opponents.

Because of all of the hype surrounding Alabama, Clemson has basically played second-fiddle to this team all season long, however, what they have been able to accomplish should not go unnoticed. They will unquestionably be the toughest test that Alabama has faced this season and by far the best defense. Had it not been for the remarkable season by Tua and what he was able to do with this offense, Clemson would have been at the forefront of all the hype.

These two teams are very evenly matched, but if we were to pick which team is actually the better overall team, we would have to say it's Clemson. Alabama has been vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball this season, something we are not accustomed to seeing from a Nick Saban defense, but it has been a glaring weakness in this team which has fortunately been masked by such a stellar offense. The Alabama defense will certainly be tested in this matchup by Trevor Lawrence and we expect Clemson will be able to put up points.

For Alabama however, we don't believe things will come as easy. The Clemson front-7 is the best in the country and Tua has yet to see the type of pressure that Brent Venables is about to bring. The key for Clemson is going to be putting pressure on Tagovailoa and forcing him to make quick decisions and (hopefully) mistakes. Clemson is likely the one team in the country that can match the kind of athletes that Alabama rosters, which makes this such a compelling matchup.

This should be a highly entertaining game to watch and we are certainly looking forward to it as fans. As handicappers however, we believe the hype and history behind Alabama has affected this line as this matchup should be much closer to a pick'em. We expect Clemson to pull off the outright upset tonight but will gladly take the points for added insurance.




Bankroll Tutorial:

Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.