January 5, 2019
There are 3 NBA picks today.
#1: Detroit Pistons +3 spread (buy the half point) against Utah Jazz for 3% of the bankroll.
There is no question that the Detroit Pistons have been struggling as of late. They come into this matchup having lost 12 of their last 16 games. They are coming off of a solid performance on the road against the Memphis Grizzlies and will have the advantage tonight of playing a Utah team coming in on the second half of a back-to-back after toppling the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.
Utah is a quality team, however, they have had somewhat of a light travel schedule recently. Despite their success, they haven't exactly been a strong team on the road, having lost 5 of their last 7 on the highway, with their most recent victory coming at the hands of a lowly (and very short handed) Cleveland Cavaliers team. This is exactly the type of spot where we believe Utah could stumble.
The size of the frontcourt of this team with Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond could pose problems for the smaller Jazz team. Rudy Gobert has been playing well as of late, however, he will have a tall task against one of the best pure Centers and big men in Drummond. Utah will also be coming into this game on tired legs and as the game wears on, it could certainly play a factor in their small-ball style of play against a physical Detroit team.
This is a game that we expect Detroit to win outright. Getting three points at home against a Jazz team that has been suspect on the road is simply too much value to pass up.
#2: Philadelphia 76ers -7 spread against Dallas Mavericks for 3% of the bankroll.
This should be a great matchup between two quality teams, however, this situation plays more favorably for a rested Philadelphia team going up against a Dallas team that will likely be playing on fumes.
The Philadelphia 76ers come into this one on 2 days rest and should be the much fresher team in this contest. Dallas on the other hand is coming in on their second game of a back-to-back and their 5th game in the last 7 days!
Dallas also hasn't been a very good team on the road this season, going just 3-17 on the highway this year. The 76ers also boast one of the best home records this season, going 16-3 thus far on the season with their average margin of victory coming by 9 points.
This game may be close for a while, but the deeper it goes, the more fatigued we expect the Mavericks to go and that should allow Embiid and company to create separation on the scoreboard. Taking the points with Dallas may seem attractive on the surface, but the value in this one is certainly on the home team. Philadelphia should win and cover this one comfortably.
#3: New Orleans Pelicans -8 spread against Cleveland Cavaliers for 3% of the bankroll.
Despite having one some of the most talented players in the league, the New Orleans Pelicans are a team that continues to struggle. Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and Julius Randle are proving to be a dominant force in the league together, and offensively, they have been an incredibly difficult team to slow down. The issue for the Pels have always been depth and their lack of effort on the defensive side of the ball. While their offense always shows up, it has been their inability to stop anyone on offense that has been their downfall, contributing to a majority of their losses. We don't believe their defense, or lack of, will be a factor tonight, however.
With the departure of Lebron James the Cleveland Cavaliers are now one of the worst teams in the league. While they did enjoy a fair bit of success early in the season, injuries have piled up for this team, leaving them in a very compromised spot. They are a very young team and lack leadership, especially on the offensive side of the ball, which makes it difficult for them to stay competitive in games. This is their second game on a back-to-back and now have the unenviable task of taking on an offensive juggernaut led by Anthony Davis.
The Pelicans should be salivating at their opportunity to play Cleveland tonight. They come into this one stumbling a bit, having lost 7 of 9 and this is exactly the opportunity they need to turn things around. Despite going just 2-7 in their last night, it’s important to mention that those losses have come against some quality opponents and their average margin of loss is just 4 points! Had a couple of things gone their way at the end of the game, their record could be much better than it shows.
The Cavs do not have the playmakers on the team to stay competitive in this game. New Orleans will be able to score at will and win this game by whatever margin they feel like. Given their struggles, we don't expect them to show any mercy. The Cavs may be able to use the crowd to stay competitive in this one early, however, it's only a matter of time before Davis steps in and takes the game over. This may seem like a big number to lay on the road, however, the Pels should win this one easily by double-digits.
Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.