September 30, 2018
There are 3 NFL picks on Sunday. They were all released back on Friday.
New England Patriots -6.5 spread against Miami Dolphins risking 3% of the bankroll.
The Dolphins might be 3-0 but we're not quite sold on them. Not only have they yet to face a quality team, their travel schedule has been light as well starting the season in Miami before making a short trip to New York and then coming back to South Florida again. Some other teams like the Raiders have already had to travel coast-to-coast on consecutive weeks! The 'Fins beat struggling rookie Sam Darnold and the Jets and did just enough against the Titans who are a mediocre team at best in our opinion before mounting a comeback against an Oakland squad that just can't seem to get out of its own way, after the Raiders blew yet another lead to fall to 0-3! Miami is a good team but not as good as their record currently suggests.
Then you have New England on the other side and their proven pedigree over the years. They are just 1-2 on the year so far but will in all likelihood win the division ahead of the Dolphins when it's all said and done. If they are to do so, however, they know they can't fall 3 games behind this early in the season! Miami would be 3 games ahead if they manage to walk out of Foxborough with a 'W' and we just don't see that happening. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady has proven time and time again that they bounce back from defeats and having suddenly lost not one but two games in a row, we see them coming out fired up and executing today.
Rob Gronkowski, like most of these Pats, has been kept quiet over the last two weeks but should bounce back on Sunday afternoon. 'Terrific Tom' himself had a very poor performance against the Jaguars where he was completely outplayed by Blake Bortles before being dominated by the Lions in Detroit. He doesn't take losing lightly and will come out in typical all-business fashion and deliver. Keep in mind that the Dolphins lost not one but two of their defensive linemen in Branch and William Hayes in last week's game against the Raiders! That makes a defense that was already ranked among lowest in NFL in QB hits and sacks even weaker. If the Fins struggle to get pressure on Brady, we expect him to carve them open and make them pay. This is a mismatch and there's a reason a 1-2 team is favored by almost a touchdown over an undefeated opponent. We would have laid even a full TD with the hosts knowing they are likely to get the job done and cover the spread in the process.
Chicago Bears -3 spread against Tampa Bay Bucs risking 3% of the bankroll.
This is a mismatch and a game that we would've comfortably taken at even Bears -4 spread. The Bucs are a flawed team. The media has lost itself in creating this 'Fitzmagic' fiasco and while veteran journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick deserves credit for his strong start to the season, his efforts will be not enough. Fitzpatrick became the first QB in history to throw for 400+ yards in 3 consecutive games to start a season but while that is impressive, it also shows just how unbalanced this offense is. The Buccanneers haven't been able to run the ball at all this season and have relied on their quarterback's magic all too often! That is going to come to an end sooner or later and isn't something to be counted upon especially given Fitzpatrick's career averages and the fact that his completion percentage is bound to go down. This passing offense is a good one but as a whole, this offense needs a lot of work. Peyton Barber has struggled to make the running-back job his while high draft choice Ronald Jones was a healthy inactive for the first 3 weeks of the season! It's rumored that he'll split snaps with Barber today but we don't expect him to suddenly jump in and fix the Bucs' rushing problems.
Tampa has been a very one-dimensional offense and that lack of balance is likely to create problems for them against this stout Bears D. The Chicago defense ranks #1 in the NFL in sacks and a number of other important categories and is firing on all cylinders right now. The acquisition of the beast that is Khalil Mack means teams often have to double-team him just to keep him somewhat quiet and that opens things up for Akiem Hicks and the rest of this Bears' front 7 to get to the quarterback! This defense is legit. They are good enough to win games on their own and covering a small spread such as this won't be a problem at home even if Trubisky continues to falter.
Mitchell Trubisky has disappointed so far this season but he's still a young QB who's learning along the way. There will be growing pains and while he hasn't looked comfortable in the pocket thus far, he does at least have good mobility about him due to his athleticism. If this team wants to contend, Trubisky has to improve but in this particular matchup, we don't believe a lot will be required of him. Coach Matt Nagy is an offensive-genius in the mold of Sean McVay and Andy Reid and his play-calling is unique and unpredictable! He'll be able to keep this weak Tampa defense guessing and with the combination of a great defense and a solid run game, Chicago should cruise to a comfortable victory. Keep in mind this Bucs defense is starting rookies all over the back in the CB and safety positions! We doubt they'll be able to keep up with the Bears offense, an improved one that has playmakers all over it. Even if Trubisky continues to play poorly, they should win this game and cover the spread.
Seattle Seahawks -3 spread against Arizona Cardinals risking 3% of the bankroll.
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