September 28, 2018
There is one pick tonight.
Colorado -9 spread (buy the half point) against UCLA risking 3% of the bankroll.
There were a lot of people that expected the UCLA Bruins to come out of the gate firing this season, especially when it was announced that Chip Kelley would be taking over head coaching duties. The pundits circled and placed lofty expectations on this team, which up until this point, have gone unwarranted. That's not how things work in the world of college football.
Chip Kelley shouldn't be expected to step right in and start winning immediately. Kelley has a certain scheme that he likes to run, which worked well at Oregon (failed miserably in the NFL), with the point being that he inherited this team (and its talent). These are not the type of players that Kelley would normally recruit. This UCLA team is very young and inexperienced, and it will take some time for Kelley to grab reigns on the team and start producing wins. Through 3 games this season, that hasn't happened. Coming off a bye week, there are still many that believe UCLA can live up to expectations, however, we're not so optimistic.
Let's not forget about all the distractions that UCLA has had to face, not only this season, but recently with Dorian Thompson-Robinson's father taking to social media to bash the coaching style of Chip Kelley. Rest assured that he is not the only one who has displeasure with Kelley. The players appear out-of-sorts, and genuinely disinterested. Even if UCLA does use their bye week to correct some issues and build some confidence, we believe it will only be surface deep and extremely fragile. Once things start going wrong on the field, we wouldn't be surprised to see UCLA once again start unravelling.
There is a good chance that will in fact happen as they will be facing a very good (and underrated) Colorado Buffalo team in this contest. Steven Montez is arguably one of the best quarterbacks that many common fans may not have heard of. Montez is an extremely accurate passer, completing 73.4% of his throws with an 8:2 TD to inception ratio on the season. With this game being on national TV, we wouldn't be surprised if this was Montez's coming out party. He has a litany of weapons at his disposal and should be able to carve up what has been a very suspect UCLA defense.
UCLA hasn't done much to warrant any kind of backing and even though Colorado has had trouble covering double-digit spreads at home, we believe the more likely scenario is that Colorado continues playing well and UCLA continues to struggle. We feel the value is with the home team in this contest.
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