September 27, 2018
There is one pick tonight.
Miami -17 spread (buy the half point) against North Carolina risking 3% of the bankroll.
This is a matchup that we believe greatly favors the Hurricanes. The North Carolina Tar Heels are currently in a rebuilding year and it has been evident by their play thus far this season. As a team that has been known for their offense, they haven't quite clicked like many had expected. Nathan Elliott has been mediocre at best under center this season, but looked sharp last week against Pitt, which we believe is going to (at least temporarily) skew the perception of the Tar Heels' offense and is something that can be exploited.
UNC hasn't played the toughest schedule to start the season and yet they have been struggling. In this matchup, they are about to face the toughest defense that they have seen this season, in what should be a complete mismatch. The UNC offensive line is young and inexperienced, and that is going to be a disaster against an aggressive Miami defense. Both the run game and the pass game hasn't been great for UNC this season, and we don't expect things to get much better tonight.
Miami on the other hand, got a shot in the arm offensively when HC Mark Richt made the decision to bench Malik Rosier and start N'Kosi Perry. Perry injected new life into an offense that struggled under Rosier. Perry is the much more athletic, and accurate QB and as instrumental in Miami's 31-17 win over Florida International, going 20-for-29 and 240 yards and 2 scores. IF he starts tonight, he should have another big game against a leaky UNC defense.
Miami is the much better team in this contest and they appear to be getting better each and every time they step on the field. At home in this contest, this should be too much for Elliot, or Chazz Surrat (who was suspended for the first three games) to handle. Miami should race out to a comfortable lead and as long as they don't take their foot off the gas and allow UNC to score meaningless touchdowns in garbage time, they should win this game comfortably by 20+ points.
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