September 22, 2018
There are 5 college football picks today.
UMass -7 spread against Charlotte risking 3% of the bankroll.
The Umass Minutemen has lost three straight and their stock is at an all-time low. Given their recent performances, it would easy to avoid the Minutemen like the plague, however, we believe this is an ideal situation to 'buy low' on what the public views as a struggling team.
UMass has played their last 3 games on the road and those matchups have come against some tough (by their standards) competition. In Week 0, the Minutemen played at home against Duquesne and completely dominated, putting up 63 points on the scoreboard. With them now being at home, in a very winnable matchup, we expect UMass to revert more to their Week 0 form this afternoon.
The players will be motivated in this contest. They held a player only meeting this week and have been practicing in full pads all week, which is not the norm for this team. With Andrew Ford at QB, this can be a very dangerous offense. Charlotte has been playing well this season, however, they are simply going to run up against a very determined UMass team. Charlotte will struggle to keep pace on the scoreboard and UMAss should come away with a fairly easy double-digit victory.
Baylor -7 spread (buy the half point) against Kansas risking 3% of the bankroll.
Kansas has somehow managed to win two straight games and suddenly, the betting public believes they are a much-better football team than they really are. We're not quite sold on Kansas and believe they'll be exposed in this contest.
The Jayhawks have been somewhat fortunate in their victories by forcing an absurd number of turnovers. Their offense remains inconsistent, which is going to be an issue against an underrated Baylor offense. Baylor is a program that has fallen over the past few years, but this is a team that still has a ton of talent and are explosive on offense. Matt Rhule has had a tough time since taking on the head coaching job and a loss to Kansas would likely put the nail in his coffin at Baylor. Kansas may keep this close early on, but a few big plays for Baylor will break this game open.
Arizona -4 spread (buy the half point) against Oregon State risking 3% of the bankroll.
There was a lot of attention directed toward Arizona in the offseason, most notably towards QB Khalil Tate. The Wildcats have failed to live up to expectations this season, sitting at just 1-2, however, looking at what both BYU and Houston have done this season, don't appear to be 'bad' losses. This is exactly the type of matchup that Tate could use to get the college football world talking about him again.
Oregon State is 1-2 on the season as well, but they have everyone talking about their offense. They have scored more than 30 points in each of their games this season, and while that is certainly promising, their defense is still a glaring weakness. The oddsmakers have listed the total of this game at 73 points, which we believe could easily be eclipsed. As good as the Oregon State offense has been, they are going to struggle to keep pace in this contest. The lines on this game has steadily come down, which we believe has opened quite a bit of value. Given Arizona's struggles to start the season, the betting public has changed their perception on this team, which we feel is the ideal opportunity to 'buy low' in this instance as Arizona puts on their best offensive performance of the season in this one.
Texas A&M +26.5 spread against Alabama risking 3% of the bankroll.
There is no question that Alabama has been showing everyone that they are worthy of being called the best team in the nation. They have a top-notch defense and this season, they have arguably one of the most explosive offenses in the country. What they have been able to do thus far has been impressive, but this will be their toughest test to date.
The Texas A&M players seem to have already bought into Jimbo Fisher's style and it has paid dividends already thus far. They have proven that they can hang with an elite level team, having nearly beaten Clemson two weeks ago, and we feel that their style could help them keep things close with the Tide.
While everyone is talking about Tua, A&M's Kellen Mond is exactly the type of QB that has given Alabama fits in the past. He's accurate, he's athletic, and he can run. If he can limit mistakes and turnovers, he should be able to move the ball on this Alabama defense. This will also be the best defensive front that Alabama has seen this season. A big reason why the Tide's offense has worked, is because of the arm of Tua. IF A&M can force Tua into some quick decisions and apply pressure on his throws, it could cause force him into some mistakes, which is what A&M is going to need if they want to keep this game competitive. We believe they can do that. Alabama will get the win, but we think A&M makes them earn it.
Louisiana Tech +20 spread against LSU risking 3% of the bankroll.
There has been a lot of buzz surrounding LSU to start the season, however, we are still not fully convinced that it is warranted. This is still a young team that has a lot of question marks, especially surrounding their offense. They are coming off another big (and somewhat surprising) win over the Auburn Tigers, which we believe puts them in a big of a letdown position tonight.
The LA Tech Bulldogs are not a big-named program; however, they do have a rather impressive and balanced offense that could keep the LSU defense on its toes. It's well known that the Tigers biggest strength on defense is their secondary, however, LA Tech is more of a dink-and-dunk type of team that liked to throw short passes over the middle, which could counteract LSU's strength.
While we don't expect LA Tech to contend for an upset, we wouldn't be surprised to see LSU sleepwalk through this game. With some questions marks still on offensive side of the ball, we don't expect LSU to score a lot of points, which is going to make it difficult to create the type of separation to pull off the cover. If LA Tech can score 10-14 points in this contest, that should be enough to cover this spread.
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