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September 17, 2018

There is one MLB pick tonight.

 

Seattle Mariners (+156) on the ML against Houston Astros risking 3% to win 4.68%.
(LeBlanc and Valdez must start for wager to have action)

The Houston Astros are the hottest team in baseball right now, having won 12 of their last 14 games. While they have been playing well, from a value standpoint, we believe these odds are inflated given the fact that Seattle should have the pitching advantage in this matchup.

Framber Valdez is a relative unknown and while he has pitched well since being called up to the rotation, he has just 23 career innings under his belt at the Major League level. In his most recent start he was rocked by the Detroit Tigers as he struggled with his control, giving up 4 runs and 4 walks in 4 innings of work. His control issues have been evident throughout his five appearances as he has walked 14 batters in just 23 innings of work. Seattle is a team that thrives on the longball, so if Valdez struggles, it could certainly play into Seattle's favor.

Wade LeBlanc will certainly have the experience edge and he has been pitching extremely well recently, allowing just three unearned runs in his last 24 innings and has an impressive 3.49 ERA on the road for the season. He has struggled against the Astros in his career, but we certainly trust him more on the mound than we do his counterpart. Valdez’s control issues finally caught up with him last game, and we expect the same to happen to him here tonight. If that happens, the Mariners have a great shot to win this game outright and cash as sizable underdogs.




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