September 14, 2018
There is one college football pick tonight. We have also released 4 picks for Saturday's NCAAF matchups. Scroll down to view all selections.
Take Georgia State +28.5 spread against Memphis risking 3% of the bankroll.
We believe we are seeing a huge overreaction with this posted spread. It's well known that the Memphis Tigers suffered what could only be considered a 'heartbreaking' loss to the Navy Midshipmen last week, in a game they controlled for more than 3 quarters. The thought process is likely one that believes Memphis will take their frustrations out on a much lesser known program such as Georgia State. While Memphis may look better on the offensive side of the ball in this contest, this is a huge number to lay.
A lot of people are down on the Georgia State Panthers this year, especially after their 41-7 loss to NC State last week. The final score isn't truly indicative of how close the game was throughout. The Panthers were only trailing by 13 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Georgia State missed two field goals and failed twice on 4th down inside NC State territory. The Wolfpack also scored a couple "garbage" touchdowns in the final minutes of regulation to really skew the perception of the final score.
Georgia State has an extremely underrated offense and while it wasn't on display in the NC State game, prior to that, the Panthers had scored at least 21 points in 5 consecutive games dating back to last season. Memphis is a team that hasn't been known for their defense and instead are used to simply winning games in shootout fashion. Keep in mind that Memphis lost one of their all-time great QBs in Riley Ferguson and are now trying to break in AZ State transfer Brady White at the helm. White looked great in the Tigers’ opening contest against Mercer, however, he showed that he still was a rough product given his performance against the Midshipmen, going just 15 for 25 for 145 and an interception.
Memphis will score points in this contest; however, we also expect Georgia State to get their fair share of touchdowns as well. The Tigers' are a team that has a lot of holes on the defensive side of the ball, especially against the run, which is something that Georgia State does quite a bit of. If Memphis comes into this game not giving the Panthers the respect that they deserve, it could make it difficult for them to cover the number. We see some strange things happen on these weeknight games, so while Memphis will likely get the win, they will struggle to cover this lofty number.
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