September 13, 2018
There is one college football pick tonight.
Take Boston College -6.5 spread against Wake Forest risking 3% of the bankroll.
There were questions as to whether this matchup was even going to take place giving the impending arrival of Hurricane Florence in the southern states, however, this game has been moved up and will be played, although weather conditions aren't expected to be ideal. Heavy rains and winds are expected to play a part in this game, and while things could get messy, we do believe the limited style is going to ultimately benefit the Eagles in this contest.
The Eagles have one of the most potent running games in the conference behind AJ Dillion. The 245-pound back has amassed 247 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns this season while averaging 9.5 yards per carry. He is an impressive weapon to have and it should be noted that last week against Holy Cross, Dillon only played one quarter and carried the ball 6 times yet managed 149 yards! If the weather is ugly, it will force both teams to rely heavily on the ground game and there is no question, Dillon will be the best player on the field.
The weather is also going to affect both QB's ability to throw the ball downfield. That is severely going to hamper Wake Forest's game plan in this contest as they have relied heavily on the pass this season with true freshman. Wake Forest is starting a freshman under center this season and while Sam Hartman appears to like to air it out (averaging over 300 yards per game through the air), he has struggled with turnovers already this season. Even without the weather factor, Boston College has a very experienced secondary and have been tough against the pass. They also have an has a very stout front seven and have been an incredibly difficult team to run against. All these factors combined are really going to limit the offensive playmaking options for Wake and we believe they will struggle to move the ball and put points on the board.
This is also a revenge game for the Eagles. Last year, Wake Forest marched into Alumni Stadium and pulled off a 34-10 victory over the Eagles. That game happened to be Anthony Brown's first conference game as a freshman. We have seen the growth of Brown from that matchup and he has grown into an explosive playmaker. We don't believe he will fear going into a hostile environment under less than ideal conditions, in fact, we believe he will relish the opportunity. He's the more proven commodity than his counterpart and that experience could be critical is what is expected to be a sloppy game.
Boston College matches up well with Wake Forest and has this game not have the weather factor involved, we feel the Eagles would win this game comfortably by double-digits. Given the uncertainty with the weather, we feel that there is still value in picking the better team at less than a TD.
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