September 7, 2018
There is one college football pick tonight.
Take TCU -22.5 spread against SMU for 3% of the bankroll.
While typically mid-week games that involve a ranked team on the road going up against an unranked home team can often spell disaster, we don’t believe this matchup is one of them. The disparity between these two teams is so great, that anything other than a complete and utter blowout win for the Horned Frogs will be looked at as a failure.
What happened to the SMU offense last week was somewhat shocking given how proficient they had been in previous seasons. We had expected much more from veteran signal caller Ben Hicks, especially now getting more familiar with Sonny Dykes’ system. The offense was a big disappointment and couldn’t get anything going against a sub-par North Texas defense, and things shouldn’t get easier for them tonight.
While their inconsistency on offense was a surprise, their lack of defense was not so surprising when you consider how they have struggled in past years. The Mustangs returned 8 starters on defense, which may seem like a positive, however, this same defense surrendered over 35 points per game in 2017 as one of the bottom 20 defenses in the country. While there are returning starters who have experience, we believe their biggest weakness is that they simply don’t have the talent. Last week, North Texas’ Mason Fine torched the SMU secondary and made it look easy, which is somewhat scary considering the fact SMU’s run defense was previously their biggest weakness. The blowout loss to North Texas was one thing, but they are about to take a huge step up in competition, on both sides of the ball.
The TCU Horned Frogs are a team that is known for producing a balanced offensive attack. Quarterback Shawn Robinson has the arm to be efficient down the field, but he also demands respect with his running ability. Considering the fact, the Horned Frogs will move the ball easily between the tackles, Robinson will have a freeroll to take shots down the field to close out drives. After running for over 235 yards as a team with little effort from their main rushers in their opener, we would expect nothing less from the Horned Frogs’ offense on a Friday night showdown in front of a nationally televised audience as they simply run over SMU.
TCU has the capability of eclipsing the 50-point mark in this contest. The only real concern here is not whether SMU can keep this game close or go score for score with the Horned Frogs, because we don’t believe they can, it’s whether SMU will score enough in garbage time to backdoor this large number. While that is always a possibility, we don’t believe it will happen. TCU has such a balanced attack that even if they have a big lead and decide to stick to their ground game, they always have a chance to break off a big run against the porous SMU rush D and their defense is proud enough to not allow an ‘easy’ score.
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