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September 2, 2018

There is 1 college football pick today.

 

Take Miami -3 spread against LSU for 3% of the bankroll.  

While this LSU team is going to be good this season, there are simply too many question marks surrounding this team at all the skill positions. Their wide receiver corps is talented, but they are replacing nearly all their talent on the outside. They no longer have Leonard Fournette or Derrius Guice to shoulder the load in the ground game, and they will also have a new QB under center is OSU transfer Joe Burrow, who only joined the team in the later part of the summer, which means he only had a very short time to learn the playbook. Throw in the fact that Ed Orgeron basically scrapped his entire staff and has new coordinators, means that there are a lot of adjustments that need to be made and with this being the first game of the season, it is likely going to be too much to overcome, especially against a talent Miami team.

Miami on the other hand, has continuity in basically all areas of the field. This team may have struggled over their final 3 games, but let's not forget that this team also started the season 10-0 and adopted the "turnover chain". This team is loaded on the defensive side of the ball at all three levels. The defensive front racked up 44 sacks on the season and made their living in their opponents’ backfield. The have an SEC style defense, with speed and athleticism and will be going up against a relatively new O-line for LSU. They should win the battle in the trenches and that could spell disaster for Burrows in the pocket.

Miami also returns nearly all their playmakers on offense, with senior QB Malik Rosier being the most notable. Rosier wasn't overly dominant last season, however, he has shown comfort and poise under center and can make the critical throws when the game is on the line. It's that kind of experience at QB that we expect to be the difference in this contest. While LSU will undoubtedly be good later on this season, Miami should be good coming right out of the gate. This will be a battle of defenses for the most part, however, there are simply too many questions surrounding the LSU offense to fully trust them at this early point in the season. Miami has the most continuity from last season and we expect the play of Rosier at the end to be the difference in this game. Points will be hard to come by, but we simply trust the Miami offense more than LSU's and they should cover this reasonable line.




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