October 27, 2018
Sports Profit System released 8 college football picks for Saturday. Please scroll down to view them all.
#1: Michigan State -1 spread against Purdue for 3% of the bankroll.
This is an interesting matchup that we feel is swayed by the recent perception of both teams. The Michigan State Spartans are coming off arguably their worst performance of the season against their in-state rivals, the Michigan Wolverines. In that contest, Mark Dantonio's team produced their lowest offensive output since 1947, accumulating just 94 yards of offense. It was a performance that certainly swayed the public perception of this Michigan State team, but let's not forget, the Wolverines had been dominated by the Spartans recently, so they had the motivation factor on their side, not to mention they are arguably the best defensive unit in the Big 10. Michigan State is not as bad as of a team as they looked a week ago and expect that they will remind everyone of that in this contest.
On the other side we have the Purdue Boilermakers who are coming off arguably their most impressive performance in recent history when they knocked off then #2 ranked Ohio State. Not only did they beat Ohio State, they made them look like a second-class team, outperforming them in every area of the game. Their 28-point win over the Buckeyes no doubt skewed the public perception of this team and while we do believe they are a good program, we believe this line is set where it is at for a reason.
We expect Purdue to be a bit hungover from their performance against Ohio State, while the Spartans should be motivated and out for blood in this contest. Neither team is as good, or as bad as they showed in their most recent performance. The oddsmakers are spot on with this spread and the sharp money has moved this line in Michigan State's favor, despite a majority of the public backing Purdue. That speaks volumes on how the sharps believe this game will play out, and we are in agreeance. Michigan State outperforms a hungover Boilermakers team and comes away with a home win in this one.
#2: Texas Tech +6 spread against Iowa State for 3% of the bankroll.
This is another matchup where perception plays a factor. The Iowa State Cyclones came under the season as an under-the-radar type team, but recently they have really started to steal the spotlight with some of their performances this season, most notably, knocking off Oklahoma State and West Virginia in back-to-back games. While those are impressive wins, we believe they will work to their detriment in this contest.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are no pushovers and have some impressive victories of their own this season, defeating the likes of Oklahoma State, TCU and Houston. What’s most impressive is their victories over both OK State and TCU came while on the road. The Red Raiders are a team that has shown that they do not fear playing on the highway and their trip to Ames is simply going to be "another day at the office".
The Red Raiders are yet another high-powered offensive test for the Cyclones and this game should be a shootout. With that being said, we trust Texas Tech's offense just a little bit more and believe they have a shot at pulling off the outright victory. This game could come down to the final possession, and if that is indeed the case, the points could prove to be valuable.
#3: South Florida +7.5 spread against Houston for 3% of the bankroll.
The oddsmakers are simply not giving the undefeated South Florida Bulls enough credit in this contest. The Bulls are one of the few unbeaten teams left in the nation and while they have not looked all that impressive in their victories, the fact that they have found ways to win games, despite adversity, speaks volumes about this team.
Their matchup with the Houston Cougars is going to be a difficult one. Houston is well balanced on both sides of the ball and the fact that they are playing at home is going to give them the advantage. That being said, this Houston team has shown some vulnerability this season and the Bulls style of offense is just the type of offense that Houston has struggled with in the past.
The oddsmakers have listed this total in the mid-70's, which means that they expect points to be scored in this contest. Both teams should find success offensively, without a whole lot of defense on display. This has the making of a game which comes down to whatever teams possesses the football last. Even if Houston is able to hand USF their first loss of the season, we don't expect the Bulls to go down without a fight and should be able to keep this within a single score.
#4: Florida +7 spread (buy the half point) against Georgia for 3% of the bankroll.
The Florida / Georgia rivalry is one of the biggest in college football and while we don't believe that Florida is on the same level as this Georgia team, we do believe this will be a competitive matchup.
The LSU Tigers laid the blueprint on what it takes to beat this Georgia team and The Gators play a very similar style to that of LSU. While not flashy on offense, Florida does play a hard-nosed style of defense that is built to slow down the style of offense that the Bulldogs like to employ.
This game is likely going to come down to the Gator defense containing the running game of Georgia and forcing the Bulldogs to beat Florida through the air. Jake Fromm will need a big showing to escape this game with a win. On the other side, Felipe Franks will likely need to roll out of the pocket and give his receivers time to get open down the field. He will not be able to stand in the pocket and hope his offensive line is able to keep at bay the aggressive Georgia front seven. If Florida can "muddy" up this game, then they will have a shot at pulling off the upset. While we do expect the Bulldogs to find a way to prevail, it will be a much closer battle than expected, in which the points will come into play.
#5: USC -3 spread against Arizona State for 3% of the bankroll.
The USC Trojans have fallen short of expectation this season, but all of their stumbles this season have occurred on the road. The Coliseum is one of the toughest venues in all of college football to pick up a win, and Arizona State will realize that in this contest.
A big reason for the Trojans struggles this season has been their inconsistency on offense. While many may look a JT Daniels absence in this contest as a negative, we actually believe it will be a positive for this team. This will force the Trojans to get their ground game going and it will also allow Jack Shears a chance to shine in his spot start. Clay Helton will undoubtedly shorten the playbook in this contest with his third-string QB starting and that will allow USC to basically get back to the fundamentals that this offense is built on.
It likely won't be a pretty game to watch, but USC will flex their muscle in this contest and overrun Arizona State. The Sun Devils haven't looked good in their last two contests and we expect their struggles to continue in this one. USC is the more talented team and it should show on the field in this one as they defend homefield and win this one by a touchdown plus.
#6: Stanford -2.5 spread against Washington State for 3% of the bankroll.
The Washington State Cougars are coming off a complete squash game against the (then) highly ranked Oregon Ducks. The Cougars jumped out to a huge first half lead and basically cruised to a win and cover last week. That performance is certainly fresh in the betting publics' minds and we are going to use that to our advantage.
Stanford has been an up and down team all season long and have fallen out of favor of the betting public. That being said, this is still a good team, especially when playing in Palo Alto. This could be a game when the Cougars come into this game a bit overconfident.
Stanford has shown their mettle this season and this is another game where they expect to rise up to the challenge. Washington State comes into this one with a ton of momentum and we expect they will suffer from a bit of a hangover. Bryce Love has under-impressed this season and KJ Costello hasn't been sharp, but this is the game where we expect it to all come together. Stanford is favored for a reason and should come away with the victory in this one.
#7: Mississippi State -1 spread against Texas A&M for 3% of the bankroll.
Everyone is questioning how the Texas A&M Aggies can be underdogs in this contest and while it may seem strange on the surface, given how these two teams have performed recently, we believe the line says all it needs to about this matchup.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have looked terrible recently. Their offense is sputtering, and they are struggling putting points on the board. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is starting to pick up some national recognition behind the play of Kellen Mond and Traevon Williams. This Aggies team is good, but we believe they are underdogs for a reason.
Nick Fitzgerald is a good QB and this Bulldogs team is solid defensively. There is no question that they have heard all of the backroom chatter about how poorly they have looked, and we expect this will be the contest where they turn things around and prove their naysayers wrong. There are always games where the opening odds make you scratch your head, and this is one of them. The world will be on Texas A&M and the points and this is going to be the game where things simply unravel for them. At the end of this one the world will be once again scratching their heads, but it will be because A&M will be on the losing end of this game. Starkville is a tough place to play and with the stock on the Bulldogs being at an all-time low, we'll be buyers. Miss State wins this one at home.
#8: Oklahoma State +3 spread against Texas for 3% of the bankroll.
The Texas Longhorns have taken the college football world by storm. After once again dropping their season opener against Maryland, the Longhorns have been tearing through their schedule this season, capped off by an impressive victory over the Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Rivalry game two weeks ago. Texas is back is what everyone is saying and while there is no doubt that they have certainly improved, this is the exact moment where the stock on a team is at its highest, which makes for the perfect opportunity for them to stumble.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys have flown under the radar for a majority of the season. They have a couple of losses on their resume which has taken them out of the national spotlight, however, they remain a very dangerous team. They have an extremely explosive offense and with this game being played in Stillwater, this is exactly the type of game that we can see the Pokes pulling off the upset. The Longhorns are dealing with their fair share of injuries, most notably to Sam Ehlinger, which means that Shane Beuchele may see the start under center tonight. The break and butter of Texas this season has been their defense, but it will be their offense that needs to be firing on all cylinders in this one, if they expect to escape Stillwater with a victory.
The Longhorns defense will have success early in this contest, but it will be only a matter of time before the Pokes find their rhythm and start to put it on offensively. Playing in Stillwater at night is a tough venue for Texas and they will be fortunate to escape this place with a win. We're calling for the upset in this contest, but even if we are wrong and Texas finds a way to win, we expect it will be by the narrowest of margins, in which the points could prove to be valuable.
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