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October 25, 2018

There is one pick tonight.

 

Baylor +14 spread against West Virginia for 3% of the bankroll. 

There is no question that the West Virginia Mountaineers are going to be extremely motivated heading into this contest after being upset and knocked from the ranks of the unbeatens at the hands of Iowa State in their most recent game. They will come into this contest looking to atone for that performance, and while many expect them to get back to form against Baylor, we should remind everyone that this is not the same Baylor team that we have come to know over the last few seasons.

Matt Rhule has done a great job in starting to turn this program around. They were 1-11 a season ago and this season, are already just 2 wins away from achieving their goal of becoming bowl eligible. Even though West Virginia is the more herald team this season, Baylor matches up with them extremely well and are putting up similar stat lines. WVU has posted an average of 37 points per game this season, while Baylor has scored an average of 33. WVU is survived by Will Grier and his ability to throw down the field, averaging 321 yard per game, Baylor throws it for 313. WVU is converting 50 percent of their third down attempts this season, Baylor is converting at a 48 percent clip. WVU commits 7.8 penalties a game, Baylor commits 7.3. Finally, WVU is a minus-two in turnovers (11 lost, nine gained) and Baylor also is at minus-two (eight lost, six gained).

Let's not forget that a year ago, this Baylor team put a real scare into the Mountaineers, rallying from a 38-13 deficit to almost pull off the miraculous comeback, before ultimately falling 38-36. It was the insertion of then freshman, Charlie Brewer under center that sparked the Baylor offense in that game. With another year under his belt, Brewers has been more comfortable in the pocket. He could go toe-to-toe with Grier in this contest in the passing department.

These two teams have a history of playing closely contested games. There is no question that the Mountaineers will have the motivational advantage in this contest, but a lot is going to have to go wrong for Baylor to lose by three scores and not cover this spread, especially with the explosive offense that they have. This will be a true test for West Virginia and how their handle having their bubble burst, and while we believe they will find a way to win the game, there is a lot of value on the road dog at this number.




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