October 22, 2018
There is one pick tonight.
Take the UNDER 53 total points in NY Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons for 3% of the bankroll.
Some books have this total at 53 while others offer 52.5 points. Buy the half point just to be on the safe side if it's the latter.
The New York Giants are a complete dumpster fire this season. Despite picking up Saquon Barkley with the #2 pick in the NFL draft, they are still struggling in numerous areas which has led to their 1-5 start. Eli Manning is taking a brunt of the criticism for the team’s poor performances however, we don't believe he is the only one to blame. The offensive line has been dreadful this season, allowing a consistent amount of pressure to be applied to the QB. Manning has been forced to settle for short throws and check-downs in a majority of his drop backs and teams have simply been game-planning around both Barkley and Beckham Jr, which has severely limited the Giants' offense.
Atlanta has been a team that has struggled on the defensive side of the ball, pretty much all season long. They have surrendered 37 or more points in three of their last 4 games, and while they did pick up the win in their last contest, they did give up 29 points. While many may assume that the Giants' should be able to find their offense tonight against such a struggling defense, we are not sure that will be the case. The Falcons gained quite a few players back from injury and while others remain out, the younger players who have stepped up in their offense have now grown accustomed to their newfound roles on defense. We expect the Atlanta defense to be on the rise and not continue to be as porous as they have been to start the season.
Another contributing factor to this game potentially staying on the low side is the fact that Atlanta will be missing their kicker, Matt Bryant tonight. While the loss of Bryant could go somewhat unnoticed by the casual sports bettor, his production on the field could be felt in a big way. Bryant is a Pro Bowl kicker with a big leg and has had quite an impact on the Falcons' scoring this season. Bryant has contributed to 26.5% of Atlanta's total points scored this season! He is also 3/3 on field goals of 50+ yards this season. This is a team that relies heavily on their kicker and with having someone new in the backfield, the points that Bryant normally would put up, are not guaranteed tonight. Something as simple as one missed extra point could be the difference in this game failing to reach the total.
The betting public has been steadily pounding the Over in this matchup and yet the total has dropped 2 points, which speaks volumes on how the oddsmakers believe this game is going to go. Both teams should have success moving the ball, but we don't believe this will be the shootout that everyone is expecting it to be. If both teams struggle to punch it into the endzone and have to settle for field goals, it will be tough to see this game coming close to the total. In this matchup, we feel the value is on the Under.
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