October 20, 2018
There are 4 college football picks today.
#1: NC State +18 spread against Clemson for 3% of the bankroll.
This is a matchup between one of the more overrated teams in the country going up against one of the more underrated. The Clemson Tigers are a good team, that is not in question, but this is not the same team as in years' past. QB Trevor Lawrence is a 5-star recruit, the Clemson defensive front is stout, Travis Etienne is a stud RB, but there still seems to be something missing from this team. While they are winning games, they are not asserting their dominance as they have in previous years. Could today be the day; possible... but we haven't really seen it yet.
Let's not forget, NC State is still undefeated on the season. They are a veteran group that knows this Clemson team well. QB Ryan Finley could potentially be one of the top QBs in the NFL draft next season, and he is 0-2 against Clemson, in games that NC State had the opportunities to win. With this being Finley's last year, you can believe he would love to finally beat the one team whom he hasn't been able to topple. They are balanced on offense and their defensive is even better than it was a season ago. We have not seen what this NC State team is truly capable of, but today could be their most impressive performance to date.
This should be a very entertaining game and with this game being played in Death Valley, it will certainly favor the Tigers, however, if NC State is able to slow down the Clemson rushing attack, they should be able to keep this game close enough to remain in striking distance. We wouldn't be completely shocked to see NC State win in an upset, but with the talent that Clemson possesses, they should find a way to win, but once again, it will be a closer game than expected. The value is with the points in this one.
#2: Memphis Tigers +10 spread against Missouri for 3% of the bankroll.
We believe this is a bad matchup for Missouri. They are coming off an extremely tough and physical contest against the Alabama Crimson Tide. They are beat up and could come into this game a bit flat, especially against a perceived 'lesser' team in the Memphis Tigers.
Memphis had arguably their biggest win of the season all locked up as they dominated the undefeated UCF Knights in the first half of their matchup a week ago. In the end, they fell short of the upset, but did show their efficiency and prowess on the offensive side of the ball. They match up extremely well against Missouri, who has had trouble containing high-powered passing and running games.
While we are a bit worried of a hangover after their loss against UCF, this is another opportunity for them to get-up and pull off an upset against an SEC team. This game should turn into shootout and the winner will likely be the team that has the ball last. Memphis' balanced offense should test the will of the Missouri defense and we expect them to pull off the upset on the road. Even if they don't, the offense should keep them in the game and allow Memphis to stay within this number.
#3: Purdue +14 spread (buy the half point) against Ohio State for 3% of the bankroll.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are undefeated. They are highly ranked in the national polls and one of the top teams to make the CFP this season. That being said, they could be on upset alert tonight if they don't show their opponent respect.
The Purdue Boilermakers are 3-3 on the season but could very easily be undefeated themselves. It took 3 games to get things going, but the Boilers are on a 3-game winning streak and their offense is firing on all cylinders. They have put up over 40 points in each of their last 2 games, and it is worth mentioning that those games were played on the road. This is the biggest test for Purdue this season, however, we believe they will be more than game tonight.
Ohio State is a powerhouse and has basically been able to score at near will this season. They should have little issue putting points up against what has been an unreliable Purdue defense. That being said, The Buckeyes defenses haven't truly been tested this season either. Their secondary is unproven, and the passing game of Purdue is going to test that. It's worth mentioning that OSU has a losing record when playing gin this Stadium and this is arguably the best Purdue team we have seen in quite some time.
The field is grass, which is much different than the turf that Ohio State is used to playing on. That could cause some issues for both of their offense and defense. Laying 14 points on the road against an offensively explosive team like Purdue is a tall task to ask. With what should be a raucous crowd tonight, expect Purdue to give Ohio State all it can handle tonight. The points will prove to be valuable in this one.
#4: Washington State -3 spread against Oregon for 3% of the bankroll.
It appears everyone in the college football world is talking about Ducks' QB, Justin Herbert. There is no question that Herbert is a quality QB, the world is about to take notice of Washington State's Gardner Minshew. Minshew is arguably the best QB in the country that no one is really talking about and this is simply a bad matchup for Oregon.
Both offenses should find success in this one, however, the deciding factor in this matchup is going to be the play of the defenses. Washington State's defense is simply a step ahead of that of Oregon's. The Cougars lead the conference in passing defense, which should make Herbert’s attack one-dimensional. Meanwhile, Oregon's passing defense hasn't been stellar this season and could be considered a weakness. Mike Leach likes to spread defenses thin, and that is going to allow Minshew to dissect this Oregon secondary.
The Ducks are also coming off a huge come from behind win over Washington. It was an emotional win for the Ducks and could cause them to come into this one just a bit overconfident and flat. That would be a mistake. The Cougars have won a conference leading 10-straight home games and with all the attention recently on Oregon, we expect a bulk of the college football world to be leaning towards Oregon with the points and expecting them to win outright. We don't believe that will be the case. Washington State are the favorites in this one for good reason. They knock off the Ducks and cover the spread in the process.
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