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October 18, 2018

There is one MLB pick tonight.

 

Boston Red Sox (+166) on the ML against Houston Astros risking 3% to win 4.98%.
(Price and Verlander must start for wager to have action)

The Boston Red Sox took a commanding 3-1 lead in the series last night and are currently 1 win away from clinching their spot in the World Series for the first time since 2013. Houston will be playing with a tremendous amount of desperation in this contest tonight in hopes of staving off elimination and there is no question that they are not going to allow their season to end quietly. The oddsmakers realize this and have once again adjusted the odds to force the betting market to pay a premium to back Houston in what they believe will once again be a bounce back spot.

The Astros will also have the benefit of facing off against David Price in this contest. Price's long history of sub-par postseason performances are highly profiled, as the veteran is 0-9 in 11 postseason outings and has earned a reputation as a pitcher who simply cannot win in big games. This factor alone has likely weighed heavily in the oddsmakers formulation of these odds and Price's postseason performances are something that nearly every sports bettor is aware of. These factors are also what we believe opens up a tremendous amount of value on the Red Sox once again, as they have proven their capabilities all season long, and have paid off their backers immensely when slated as underdogs.

Despite the bounce back factor and that they will be facing Price tonight, this is not a great spot for Houston, especially with Justin Verlander taking the mound. The Red Sox have already seen Verlander once this series and that will give them an advantage. The more a hitter sees a pitcher, especially in a short timeframe, the more success they generally have and right now, the Red Sox offense seems to be firing on all cylinders.

We don't expect Houston to roll over in this game, but we also don't expect the Red Sox to lie down and allow Houston a chance to get back into this series. They want to clinch this series just as bad as the Astros want to extend it. That being said, at nearly 2:1 odds, the value is once again on the Red Sox in this contest.




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