Members Only

October 17, 2018

There is one MLB pick tonight.


Boston Red Sox (+140) on the ML against Houston Astros risking 3% to win 4.20%.
(Porcello and Morton must start for wager to have action)

Even though the Houston Astros will enter Game 4 in almost a must-win situation, we don't believe there is enough of an edge to warrant laying these kinds of odds given the pitching situation the Astros are in tonight.

Charlie Morton has undoubtedly been the Astros most consistent starting pitcher this season, going 15-3 with a respectable 3.18 ERA on the year. The issue with him taking the mound tonight is that this will be his first postseason start and first appearance since late September. Pitching in the postseason is all about rhythm and momentum, and at this point, Morton has none. He has also struggled against the Sox this season, going 1-1 with a 6.97 ERA over 10 innings. His lack of in-game playing time could cause him to be a bit rusty in the early going, and if that is the case, that could be the opening that the Red Sox need to take control on the scoreboard.

Rick Porcello on the other hand has been active during this series, having alternated between starts and bullpen sessions in their ALDS matchup against the Yankees. Porcello has pitched well in his dual-role and that has also kept him active, which should be an advantage for Boston on the mound. He has been especially sharp against Houston in his career, although his team is 4-2 lifetime against the Astros when he takes the mound.

The Houston Astros are a good team, there is no question about that, however, we do feel that the Red Sox are just a bit better. They are getting production from nearly everywhere in their lineup, with different players stepping up in key situations already during this series. That is extremely hard to bet against. We wouldn't be surprised if Houston bounced back in this situation, however, in terms of pure value, there is no question it's with the Red Sox getting plus-money in a game they could certainly win.

Bankroll Tutorial:

Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.