October 16, 2018
There is one MLB pick tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers (+131) on the ML against LA Dodgers risking 3% to win 3.93%.
(Gonzalez and Hill must start for wager to have action)
The Milwaukee Brewers regained the upper hand back from the LA Dodgers last night, bouncing back from a 4-3 defeat in Game 2 to hold the Dodgers scoreless in a 4-0 victory last night. With the Dodgers now down 2-1 in the series, we believe the situational perception that LA finds themselves in is now going to sway the average bettor to look the way of the Dodgers in this contest.
There are a lot of things that the Dodgers have going for them in this matchup, we are certainly not going to deny that. They (at least in theory) should have the motivational edge in this contest, in a bounce back situation, essentially playing for their playoff life. Going down into a 3-1 hole is not a statistically favorable situation for the Dodgers advancing past this round should they lose this game, so they will be playing with some intensity tonight.
Also, looking at the side-by-side comparable stats between these two pitchers, on the surface it would appear that Rich Hill would have the advantage over Gio Gonzalez. Hill has pitched extremely well for the Dodgers this season and even has had success against Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Gio has had a mediocre quality season thus far, and has seemingly struggled on the road. It would make sense that the Dodgers be favored in this contest.
Even with what appears to be numerous advantages, we don't believe the Dodgers are in a great spot to pick up the win tonight. Milwaukee has been playing lights out over the past few weeks and it would be a mistake to ignore their momentum. This is a team that is not used to winning and have been playing with a chip on their shoulders. We have seen similar situations with teams like the Houston Astros, who had a breakout season in 2016 prior to winning the World Series and with the Kansas City Royals in 2014, a year before they too won it all. When a team that has been used to losing, finally finds success, they become an incredibly dangerous opponent. That is what we believe LA is up against now.
The Brewers are getting production from everywhere on the field and it appears to be a true collective effort, which puts them in a great position to keep their momentum going. The Dodgers may start to come unraveled in this game if they don't find success early on in this one. Until the Brewers' prove otherwise, there is certainly quite a bit of value backing them as underdogs.
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