October 11, 2018
There is one pick tonight, which was released on Wednesday.
Texas Tech +7.5 spread against TCU for 3% of the bankroll.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are arguably one of the most underrated team in the Big 12. After losing to Ole Miss to open the season, Texas Tech rattled off three straight victories, with two of them coming against the likes of Houston and Oklahoma State on the road. They are coming off a hard-fought loss to West Virginia in their most recent contest, however, let's not forget that they have a Heisman hopeful in Will Grier under center which makes that loss much more palatable.
TCU on the other hand hasn't been the dominant force in the Big 12 that they have been in years past. They are just 1-3-1 against the spread this season and dating back over the last 3 years, they are just 2-13 ATS in lined home games and 7-17 ATS when listed as the favorites. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has been profitable as underdogs, going 6-3 ATS when getting up to 10 points.
Both teams are banged up heading into this contest and both backup quarterbacks could see action tonight. Alan Bowman is dealing with a collapsed lung, which means Jett Duffey will be looking to take over under center. The Red Raiders have always been great at developing quarterbacks and Duffey adds a different dimension to this offense by being a dual-threat runner. His ability to tuck the ball and run will likely cause issues for the TCU defense and keep them off balance enough for the offense to do damage.
Texas tech has proven that they can score on anyone in the country, and given the regression of TCU as hefty favorites, we expect this to be a competitive battle. In a mid-week game with some many unknowns, we feel the value is with the points in this one.
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