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October 8, 2018

There is one MLB pick today.


Under 8.5 total runs in Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees for 3% of the bankroll.
(Severino and Eovaldi must start for wager to have action)

The total on this game is rather interesting, considering that in Game 2 with David Price and Masahiro Tanaka on the mound, the game total was set at 9 runs. In this matchup, you have a pitcher in Nathan Eovaldi, who has been less than sharp on the road, facing Luis Severino, who has been less than sharp in playoff appearances, and yet the total has dipped by half a run from Game 2.

Also, looking at each team’s past performances, the Over has cashed in 6 of the last 7 for the Red Sox and 8 of the last 9 for the Yankees. That’s a combined 14-2 towards the Over for both teams! Given the potency of both of these offenses and the inconsistencies of both pitchers, we believe the betting public is going to be pounding the Over in this contest, expecting a high-scoring game, where in fact, we believe the opposite is going to happen.

Luis Severino, while he has struggled in the postseason, is the unquestioned Ace of this Yankees rotation. He has been nearly unbeatable at home this season, compiling a 10-2 record with a 2.62 ERA on the season. Over his last 3 appearances, he has been incredibly sharp, going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA, giving up just 12 hits in his last 16 innings of work.

For the Red Sox, Nathan Eovaldi hasn't exactly been the epitome of consistency, especially on the road where he is 2-6 on the season, however, looking past that statistic, he has been a thorn in the Yankees side this season. In 16 innings against New York this season, he has given up 0 earned runs and just 6 hits in his last 16 innings! That includes one appearance at Yankee Stadium back on 9/18 where he pitched 6 strong innings of 2-hit ball.

On the surface, this appears like it could be a high scoring affair, however, we believe both pitchers will be the stars of the show. The bullpens of both teams have been stellar as well and with so much on the line, we wouldn't be surprised if both manager's dipped deep into their rotations and used multiple relievers to simply get outs. If both pitchers have quality starts and can limit the damage done early in this contest, especially when it comes to giving up the long-ball, then we expect this game to end with a final score of 4-2, or 4-3 which still falls comfortable under the total.

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