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October 6, 2018

There are 3 college football picks today.  

 

#1: Ole Miss -22.5 spread against UL Monroe for 3% of the bankroll.

The Ole Miss Rebels are a team that many people are not high on, and likely for good reason. In their high-profile matchups this season, they have been easily outclassed by the elite in the SEC. They rolled out to an impressive start, putting up gaudy numbers against inferior competition and then faced Alabama, in a game that they were completely decimated in, 62-7. They won their next game, handily against an inferior opponent and had a chance to atone for their performance against the Crimson Tide, with a matchup against LSU. In that matchup, Ole Miss once again failed to get anything going and were essentially embarrassed in that contest once again.

That seems to be Ole Miss’s MO. They roll through inferior teams and fail to show up against the elite of the conference. This should be just the matchup that the Rebels need to get back into the win column and forget their most recent performance. Let's not forget that both Alabama and LSU are two elite defenses; UL Monroe is not. The Rebels offense should be able to score at will in this matchup and UL Monroe is not a team that is known for their offensive explosiveness this season.

The total on this matchup has risen from where it opened and is now up over 75. That shows that the oddsmakers are expecting a high scoring game, we just don't believe a bulk of those points will come from the Warhawks side. Ole Miss has already put up a 76-point outing against Southern Illinois this season and while we don't necessarily believe they will put up that many, there's no reason to believe they can't put up at least 50.

The Rebels should be marching up and down the field all afternoon and can essentially name their score in this one. The spread is just a bit too low in this contest as The Rebels should win this one by 24+ points. 

 

#2: Virginia Tech +7 spread against Notre Dame for 3% of the bankroll.

This is an interesting matchup. At the beginning of the season, everyone was excited to see this matchup between Notre Dame and Virginia Tech, however, no one was talking this being Ian Book versus Ryan Willis. Both teams will be playing their backup quarterbacks, which adds somewhat of an element of surprise in this contest.

Book has been a welcome addition to the ND offense, allowing the Irish to push the ball downfield, which is something that they have lacked under Brandon Wimbush. They are coming off an impressive stomping of the Stanford Cardinal, but let's not forget, that matchup was in South Bend at night, which is an extremely tough place to play. Coming off the big win, and now having to travel to another hostile environment in Blacksburg, will the Irish be in for a bit a hangover? We wouldn't be surprised if that was the case.

There are always one or two shocking upsets in a college football season, and Virginia Tech was on the receiving end of one of those two weeks ago when they were upset by ODU. They also lost QB Josh Jackson in the process. It was a shocking upset, but we believe it made this VT team that much tougher. QB Ryan Willis took control under center and bounced back nicely against Duke last week and will now have a chance to carry that momentum over against ND.

While Book has played well since taking over under center, this will be his toughest test to date and it will take place on the road. The Irish have yet to see a defense like Virginia Tech and they always seem to up their game at home, especially in a nighttime environment. The crowd will be loud and raucous, so it will be interesting to see how Book performs under pressure. The Hokies have been stout against the run which will likely force Book to shoulder a bulk of the offensive load. If VT can put pressure on the youngster and force him into mistakes, it could spell trouble for the Irish.

At lot of people are high on ND this season, and for good reason, however, this is a tricky matchup for them. The Hokies were upset a couple weeks ago and would no doubt like to return the favor and upset the Irish tonight. They are certainly capable of pulling off the upset at home, however, even if they don't, they should be able to keep this game close and within the touchdown spread. The value is with the home team in this one.

 

#3: Arizona +3 spread (buy the half point) against California for 3% of the bankroll.

These are two teams that have had varying amount of hype surrounding them this season. Of course, the Arizona Wildcats were a team that many were talking about in the offseason with breakout star Khalil Tate returning under center. Tate electrified the college football world a season ago, tearing through the competition with his legs and that brought a ton of hype around the team this season. Naturally, things haven't quite worked out for Arizona, with Tate failing to live up to last season's hype, the Wildcats have fell drastically short of expectations.

The Cal Golden Bears were not a heavily hyped team entering this season, but a good start to the year, including a win over BYU in Provo behind some solid defensive efforts had a lot of people talking about the now re-vamped Cal Bears. We had not bought into the Cal hype train and we were correct, when they were completely run over by the Oregon Ducks last week. We believe the Ducks laid the blueprint for what it takes to beat this team, and they were somewhat exposed.

With everyone down on Arizona and a majority expecting a bounce back performance from Cal, we believe this is a great spot for the Wildcats. Khalil Tate hasn't quite gotten going, but it is only a matter of time before that changes. They also have a sleep Doak Walker candidate in RB J.J Taylor. Taylor was absolutely electric last week putting up record breaking numbers against Oregon State. We believe the newfound focus on Taylor is going to open some things for Tate in this contest. It's hard to trust Cal, especially as a road favorite against a team that many have already written off.

We feel that the wrong team is favored in this contest, and that the Wildcats will win this one outright, so we'll gladly take the free field goal with the Arizona at home.




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