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October 4, 2018

There is one college football play tonight.  Note that some book currently have the spread listed on this game at 17.5, while others have it at 18. It's important to shop around to get the best line and buy the hook to get the key number of 17.

 

Houston -17 spread (buy the half point) against Tulsa risking 3% of the bankroll.

Despite coming off a bye week, this is a terribly bad matchup for the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. Their defense has been suspect this season and they are about to go up against one of the most talented and explosive offenses in the country in the Houston Cougars. Houston ranks 2nd in the nation in scoring, averaging over 52 points per game this season. A big reason for their success on offense has been the play of QB D'Eriq King who has been extremely efficient (and careful) with the football, having thrown just a single interception on the season. The ground game has also been a major factor for Houston this season, averaging 251.5 yards per game which is good for 15th in the FBS. They are extremely balanced, which is going to pose problems for Tulsa tonight.

The Golden Hurricane are not close to the offensive juggernaut that Houston is, and they have a major problem with turnovers this season. QB Luke Skipper has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season and are currently -5 in turnover margin. Turning the ball over and giving the Houston offense extra possessions will be disastrous in this contest, which is something that we expect to happen.

This is also a revenge game for the Cougars which will add another level of motivation for them. Tulsa upset Houston a year ago and they didn't just manage to win, they dominated the Cougars to the tune of 45-17 in Tulsa. It was an unexpected performance from the 2-win Tulsa team, and we don't expect the Houston players to have forgotten that fact. The Cougars have shown that they have no issues running up the scores on their opponents this season. Outside of their loss to Texas Tech, their smallest margin of victory this season was 18 points, in their first game of the season, which also happened to be on the road. At home, in a weeknight game, we wouldn't be surprised to see Houston put up another 50-spot in this contest.

Tulsa will not be able to go toe-to-toe with Houston in this contest so the only way they have a legitimate shot of covering this number is through the backdoor. Houston is also coming off a bye week and should gain a big lead in this contest and as long as they don't give up a couple meaningless scores in garbage time, they should win this one comfortably by three touchdowns. The value is with the home team tonight.




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