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October 1, 2018

There is one MLB pick today. This game is set for a 1:00pm EST start.

 

Milwaukee Brewers (+115) on the ML against Chicago Cubs risking 3% to win 3.45%.
(Chacin and Quintana must start for wager to have action) 

This afternoon's matchup is game number 163 and will decide which team wins the division and advances to the NLDS. The loser of this game will take the Wildcard spot and play a one-game playoff with the loser of the Rockies / Dodgers matchup. While this is not a win-or-go home game for either team, the ability to punch their ticket into the playoffs and not have to play a team like the Dodgers or Rockies should certainly motivate both teams in this contest.

A lot of talk has been made about Jose Quintana being a "Brewers Slayer" and for good reason. He is 6-2 lifetime with an impressive 1.60 ERA and WHIP of 0.817 in 10 career appearances. While those numbers certainly are impressive, Quintana has been quite hittable this season. He has a 4.28 ERA at home this season and has struggled somewhat in his most recent appearances, watching his ERA inflate to 5.40 over his last 3. He has also been trying beat up the strike zone and while he has a respectable 19-to-3 K:BB ratio, he has been leaving himself susceptible in the zone, surrendering 5 homeruns in his last 3 starts. It's certainly worth noting that one of his losses against the Brewers came back in August where he was shelled for 5 earned runs on 6 hits in 5 innings.

The season looked all but over for the Brewers a month ago, however, they have rallied and had been playing their best baseball of the season in the month of September. They come into this matchup on a 7-game win streak and winners in 10 of their last 12. What has been most impressive however has been their offense. They are getting solid contributions from everywhere and have a genuine MVP candidate in Christian Yelich. The Brewers are seeing the ball and swinging the bat well, having put up double-digit run’s multiple times during their recent stretch. They will not be intimidated by the Cubs in this contest.

Jhoulys Chacin has been the Brewers most consistent starter and actually has pitched better than Quintana this season. He has given up just 4 earned runs over his last 16.7 innings pitched against the Cubs this season, although he has taken the loss in the last 2, despite stellar performances. We don't believe he will lose a third. Given the way his offense has performed recently, if Chacin can limit the damage in the early portion of this game, it should keep Milwaukee in the game. This matchup could go either way, but the way the Brewers' have been swinging the bat lately, there is value on them as underdogs.




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