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November 15, 2018

There is one college football pick tonight.   

 

North Texas -4 spread against Florida Atlantic for 3% of the bankroll. 

Both teams have underperformed from their lofty expectations this season, which makes this matchup that much more interesting. FAU was an 11-win team a season ago, but currently sit at 5-5 on the season. Meanwhile, North Texas started the season like a house on fire, racking up some impressive wins before stumbling in conference play, going just 3-3 over their last 6 games.

Recent perception is also going to play a part in this matchup tonight as FAU has been steamrolling the competition as of late, while North Texas has been struggling. The Mean Green are also coming off a heart-breaking defeat at the hands of ODU, where they blew a late 17-point lead to allow the Monarchs to pull off the upset. It was a tough loss to endure and there is no question that that loss is going to weigh heavily on the perception of this team.

From a matchup standpoint, the advantage has to go to the Mean Green. They have the better quarterback in Mason Fine, who still remains one of the most underrated QBs in the country. Their defense is also topping in the conference, focusing around a stifling run game which plays directly into the strength of what FAU does on offense. North Texas has also been great in turnover margin, with a +10 on the season, which is another issue that has plagued the Owls this season.

North Texas will also have double-revenge in mind as they were not only beaten by the Owls the last two years, but they were thoroughly dominated. This should add extra motivation tonight as they not only want to atone from last week's letdown, but also exact a manner of revenge on FAU for the last two seasons. This should be an entertaining game from a fan perspective, but the decided advantage, on a short week, at home has to lie with the Mean Green. We don't believe the FAU defense will have any answer for Fine and North Texas should outpace FAU to come away with the win and cover.




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