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May 28, 2018

There is an NBA pick tonight.

Take Golden State Warriors -5 spread (buy the half point) against Houston Rockets for 3% of the bankroll.

It’s Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals! It doesn’t get much more exciting than that for NBA fans. The #2 seed goes to Houston to play the team that finished as the #1 seed and yet is installed as 5 point favorites by Vegas! We believe there are good reasons behind that and expect the Warriors to pull away at some point.

Houston is a great team but they aren’t without their flaws. They rely heavily on 3-point shooting and while that has served them well thus far, it makes them less reliable than a group like the Warriors. That’s because Golden State can hit those 3’s as well but they have a more balanced offense overall, one that can hurt the opposition in a number of different ways. They also have three of the most talented shot-makers in the game and should prove too much for the Rockets.

Chris Paul is a game-time decision and while he may see the floor, we believe he’s more likely to sit this out than to play. He hurt his hamstring at the end of Game 5 and hamstring injuries often take a bit of time to heal. He missed Game 6 and we don’t expect him to be ready for this one. However, even if he does play, he’s unlikely to be at 100%. If that is the case, guarding Steph Curry will be nearly impossible and his shot may falter as well. We believe CP3’s likely absence or less than ideal condition is a huge blow to Houston’s chances as he’s their floor general and was the primary reason they won a couple of the earlier games in this series.

The Warriors share the ball much better than Houston and dish out more assists. To us, that is a more fundamentally-sound team and one that can go further. The Rockets rely on isolations too much and don’t pass the ball around as much. Ultimately that could be their undoing against a team that can score baskets in isolations or by dishing it around. Houston may be the #1 seed but they are underdogs for a reason. Golden State has all the momentum given the way they forced Game 7 by staving off elimination in Game 6. Not only did they win that game, it’s the manner in which they won it that was so demoralizing to this Houston squad. The Rockets led by as much as 17 points in what could have been their close-out game and a ticket to NBA Finals but the Warriors mounted a huge comeback and ended up winning the game by nearly 30 points! Every one of their players rediscovered his shooting touch and regain confidence and that doesn’t bode well for the Rockets in this game. Having lost the chance to close out the series in Game 6 despite a huge lead, we believe will hurt them in this game. They know they were right there but couldn’t get it done… Golden State on the other hand has the confidence knowing that even if they fall behind, they can rally. This could be a closely-contested game but we’ll lay the points with the team that we believe will advance to the Finals knowing they are likely to cover the spread in the process.

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