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May 25, 2018

There is one pick today.

Take LA Angels (+220) on the ML against New York Yankees risking 3% to win 6.60%.
(Heaney and Severino must start for wager to have action.)

Luis Severino has been the unquestioned "Ace" of the Yankees rotation this season posting a 7-1 record with a 2.35 ERA while striking out 76 in just 65 innings of work. Hitters have been chasing and fanning against Severino pretty much all season long, and given his recent stretch of quality outings, the oddsmakers have made the average bettor lay a premium price for backing him. This contest is no different, however, we do believe the price tonight is just a bit inflated.

Severino has given up just two homeruns all season long, but it's worth mentioning that one of those came when Severino faced this Angels team back on April 27. LA managed to tag Severino for 3 earned runs in that contest, and although he did not take the loss, he is just 0-1 with a 5.54 ERA in two career starts against LA. Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton are both 3 for 12 versus Severino, while Mike Trout is 1 for 3 and Albert Pujols is 2 for 6. Given those numbers and statistics, it shouldn't be surprising if the Angels have a decent amount of success at the plate tonight.

While he is not quite on the level that Severino is pitching at, one shouldn't overlook what Andrew Heaney has been able to do on the mound this season. Heaney has allowed a total of five earned runs over his last five starts but is coming off a loss to Tampa Bay in a game in which he was charged with four unearned runs. Let's remember that unearned runs are not a result of poor performance form the pitcher. Heaney struck out seven batters in that outing and owns 46 strikeouts in 40 1/3 total frames this season. Heaney also had success against this lineup earlier in the season when he struck out nine while yielding two runs (one earned) across five innings on April 27 but settled for a no decision.

These are two quality teams, with two quality pitchers on the mound tonight. The oddsmakers have set this total at 9 runs, which means they do expect both offenses to do some damage tonight and that gives the Angels a legitimate chance to win this game if they are able to manage to string together some timely hitting. At more than a 2:1 underdog in this contest, the reward is well worth the risk for backing the Angels.

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