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May 18, 2018

There is one pick tonight.

Take Cleveland Indians (+156) on the ML against Houston Astros risking 3% to win 4.68%.
(Clevinger and Morton must start for wager to have action.)

This is an interesting matchup between two of the top teams in the American League. The Houston Astros have become a wildly popular team with the betting public over the past few years and culminated with their winning of the World Series. The prices to lay with Houston have been on the rise and that has only been exacerbated this season by the pitching of Charlie Morton. Morton comes into this contest having won 7 straight decisions dating back to last season. He is 5-0 this season with a very respectable 2.03 ERA and WHIP of 0.97. There is no question that Morton has been playing at a high-level, however, we do believe the price tag on this matchup is inflated, especially considering that he has had virtually no success against the Indians in his career. Morton is 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA over two career starts against the Indians. His second-worst start of 2017 came against Cleveland at Minute Maid Park. He allowed four runs, eight hits and two walks with five strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings in a 5-3 loss. At some point in the season Morton is going to stumble, and we believe tonight could be the spot for him to do so.

While all the attention has been thrown Morton's way, Mike Clevinger should not be overlooked in this matchup as he is one of the better 'road' pitchers in the league this season. Over his last three road starts, he boasts an ultra-impressive 0.83ERA, while averaging over 7.2 innings pitched. Given how well he has been pitching, it's certainly worth mentioning that no Houston player has more than 4 at-bats against Clevinger, and that could certainly give him him the advantage in the first couple trips through the lineup. Unlike his counterpart, Clevinger has had success against this Astros lineup. He is 1-1 with a 1.04 ERA over two career starts against the Astros, including matchup last season when he threw seven shutout innings at Minute Maid Park, allowing two hits and two walks with eight strikeouts in a 3-0 victory

While the oddsmakers have the Astros listed as heavy favorites, they have not been a dominant home team, going just 12-10 at Minute Maid Park. Given how well both pitchers have thrown as of late, we expect this to be a low scoring game. If that is indeed the case, all it takes is a single timely hit for either team to pull off the victory. Cleveland has been the more consistent team of offense as of late, especially with the longball, so if they can get a quality start from Clevinger, we believe they will get the hits needed late to pull off the underdog victory.

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