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May 17, 2018

There is one pick tonight.

Take Detroit Tigers (+155) on the ML against Seattle Mariners risking 3% to win 4.65%.
(Boyd and Gonzales must start for wager to have action.)

Tonight's play is all about value as the Detroit Tigers open a series with the Seattle Mariners. The oddsmakers have logged the Mariners as heavy favorites in this opener, however, we believe the situation both teams find themselves in tonight make them fairly even.

The Tigers should have the edge on the mound tonight as Matt Boyd is scheduled to pitch opposite Marco Gonzales. Boyd has struggled to pick up wins on the road this season, however, he will have the luxury of not having to pitch to Seattle's two best hitters as both Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz will be absent from the lineup. Boyd also pitched well against this lineup, giving up 3 earned runs over 6 innings back on May 12th, picking up the win. Gonzales meanwhile, has struggled on the mound this season, going just 3-3 with a 4.65 ERA through at games. At home, he hasn't been much better, going 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in three starts. Detroit was able to tag Gonzales for 4 earned runs in their meeting on May 12th, and Gonzales was fortunate to give up only 4 earned runs.

While both teams have been rather inconsistent this season, Detroit has been impressive as of late, winning 5 of 8 and slowly closing the gap on the Indians in the AL Central. The Tigers were blanked on the scoreboard in their series finale against Cleveland on Wednesday, so we expect their offense to be looking to bounce back in this contest and are up against just the pitcher to help them do that. Gonzales has given up 3 of more run in 6 of his 8 starts this season and we don't see that changing tonight.

This is an evenly matched game that both teams are capable of winning. Even if the Tigers don't manage to pull off the victory, they are the team that has all of the value. The reward far outweighs the risk to back to Tigers in this spot.

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