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May 10, 2018

There is one pick tonight.
 

Take Milwaukee Brewers (+135) on the ML against Colorado Rockies risking 3% to win 4.05%.
(Chacin and Maquez must start for wager to have action.)

After being shutout at home last night, the Colorado Rockies are going to be a popular choice to bounce back tonight and we believe that has helped inflate what we considered to be an already over-price line to begin with. The pitching matchup tonight does not warrant such a hefty price tag and we believe that opens a tremendous amount of value on the Brewers in this contest.

Colorado isn't a team that gets shutout often and it has only happened twice this season, but the fact that they are 0-2 after being shutout, doesn't inspire a ton of confidence ahead of this situation, especially considering they are 0-4 when scoring 1-run or less in their previous contest. They are not a team that has shown they can bounce back after a rough offensive outing and we're not sure that changes tonight.

Jhoulys Chacin will get the start for the Brewers and while his numbers aren’t eye-popping, this is a revenge matchup against his former team. He has solid numbers against his former club and has managed to pick up the win in his last two matchups against Colorado. The Brewers are 6-2 this season when Chacin has taken the mound, including winning 4 of his last 5 on the road. Tonight, Chacin will pitch opposite German Marquez who has been an absolute dumpster fire at home this season with an embarrassing 10.64 ERA and WHIP of 2.091! The right-hander gave up 3-homeruns the last time these two teams squared off and given the way he has been pitching recently, we wouldn't be surprised if he serves up three more tonight.

Milwaukee also has the edge when it comes to the bullpens as they rank 2nd in the league with a combined ERA of 2.61. Meanwhile, the Rockies rank near the bottom of the league with a 5.02 ERA on the season. Even if Marquez somehow finds a way to have a quality showing, if the battle is between the bullpens tonight, the edge must lie with the road team.

Both teams have identical records on the season and we feel Milwaukee should have the edge on the mound. Even though Coors Field is a tough place to play and gives the Rockies a slight advantage, all the other advantages reside with Milwaukee and we believe that will be enough to carry them to a nice underdog victory.




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