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May 7, 2018

There is one pick tonight.

Take Cincinnati Reds (-105) on the ML against New York Mets risking 3.15% to win 3%.
(Bailey and Conlon must start for wager to have action.)

The New York Mets come into this series opener struggling, having lost 6 straight games (all at home) and are just 6-14 over their last 20. This appears to be a team in disarray at the moment and there is no question a lot of it has to do with all the distraction surrounding a potential Matt Harvey trade. All the talk and whispers behind the scenes must be getting to the players and taking away from their performance on the field.

We don't believe their fortunes are going to get any better tonight as P.J. Conlon is scheduled to take the mound in place of an injured Jacob deGrom. Mickey Callaway had toyed with the idea taking one of his bullpen relievers and placing them in the starting role, however, he elected to save his pen and instead elected to call Conlon up from Triple-A. We believe it was a bad choice. Conlon has been terrible in Triple-A this season, going 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA with his opponents’ batting an impressive .310 against him. We all know that Triple-A is a class down from the big leagues and if he has numbers like that against lesser competition, it should only be magnified against a professional team tonight.

The Cincinnati Reds haven't been a powerhouse team this season, however, they are finally starting to get healthy, which should improve their offense. Scooter Gennett, Devin Mesoraco and Eugenio Suarez all appear to be past their lingering injuries and their re-insertion into the lineup should give the Reds a boost on offense that they have been missing for much of the season.

Homer Bailey is scheduled to take the mound for the Reds, and while Bailey is about as inconsistent as it gets in the starting role, he has shown flashes of dominance at time during his career. He has two no-hitters under his belt and while that fact is sometimes easy to forget, it does show that he is certainly capable of pitching a gem. Against a Mets team that has scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 6 games, we wouldn't be surprised if this was one of those outings. The Reds have nearly all the advantages in this contest and these are fair odds to lay with the home team who should pick up a rather convincing victory.

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