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May 6, 2018

There is one pick tonight.

Take Cleveland Indians (+119) on the ML against New York Yankees risking 3% to win 3.57%.
(Clevinger and German must start for wager to have action.)

The New York Yankees have been on quite an impressive winning streak as of late, going 14-1 over their last 15 contests. There is no question that they have been playing well, however, winning streaks such as these often skew the perception of the betting public and allow the oddsmakers to inflate the odds on that team, which is what we believe is happening here. It is always tough to go against a team on a lengthy winning streak since they have shown their ability to win, however, baseball is all about situational value, and that is what we believe this matchup represents.

The Cleveland Indians have dropped the first two games of this series and now find themselves in danger of being swept. Defeating an opponent three straight times in baseball is an incredibly difficult feat to achieve. While there is no question that it does happen, it is unlikely a quality team like Cleveland would allow it without putting up a fight.

The Indians should also own the advantage on the mound this afternoon. Jordan Montgomery has been placed on the DL and the Yankees will slide rookie reliever Domingo German in for a spot start. German has looked good in relief this season, however, as we have seen, placing relievers in the starting role does not always equal success. Through 14 relief innings this season, he has given up 6 earned runs. He has been hittable in a relief role and in a starting role, it is a completely different mindset and approach to the game and for a youngster, we believe there will be an adjustment period, especially in the early going.

For Cleveland, Mike Clevinger will be making the start. Clevinger is one of the few pitchers in the league who have performed better on the road than he has at home in his career. He has won 10 of 15 decisions and is sporting a 3.28 ERA in 23 career away contests, including a pair of scoreless starts this season. With his team desperately needing a win in this contest, we expect him to come up big once again for his team.

All of the value is on Cleveland in this matchup. If there was a situation where the Yankees would stumble, we believe it would be this one. Even if New York somehow manages to overcome the less than desirable situations they are facing, the reward for backing Cleveland at plus-money if we are correct with our assumptions, clearly outweighs the risk. Look for the Indians to deny the sweep this afternoon.

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