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May 3, 2018

There is one pick tonight.

Take Baltimore Orioles (+168) on the ML against LA Angels risking 3% to win 5.04%.
(Tillman and Barria must start for wager to have action.)

We believe this matchup is presenting a lot of value given the recent perception of the Baltimore Orioles. There is no question that Baltimore is having a down season as they are currently dead last in the ultra-competitive AL East. Even though it’s still early, at just 8-22 overall, this team is going to have an uphill battle if they want to content for a potential playoff spot come the end of the season and the betting public knows this. They have already seemingly written the Orioles off this season and have gone somewhat into "auto-fade" mode. While that certainly has been a profitable strategy as of late, ultimately the odds have been inflated and raised on their opponents, despite less than favorable situations, which is what we believe we have here tonight.

The LA Angels are undoubtedly the 'better' overall team this season when doing a side-by-side comparison of the two, however, they are sending a career minor league pitcher out to the mound tonight, which we believe could leave them vulnerable. There is no reason the odds makers should make a pitcher, who has struggled even at the minor league level, this big of a favorite against what should be a desperate team.

Another reason for the inflated line is that Chris Tillman will be taking the hill for the Orioles. Tillman has been one of the more hittable pitchers this season and has struggled in every start thus far this season; apart from one. In his last start, Tillman was near perfect, blanking the Detroit Tigers and coming away with an absolute gem. While many may believe he's due to regress back to the way he has been pitching as of late, we are not sure that is the case. Tillman has been pitching well below his capabilities this season and we believe his last outing is showing that he is going to be trending more towards his career averages, rather than continuing to struggle each and every start. We feel his last performance will give him confidence ahead of this matchup and could be the performance that was needed to spark an impressive run. Tillman has had quite the success against LA in his career as well, going 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in 6 career starts.

This is also the series finale between these two teams, with the Angels taking the first two matchups. The Orioles are in danger of being swept, and as we have seen multiple times, not only this year but in year's past, it is incredibly difficult to defeat a team three consecutive times. It surely happens, however, not as often as these particular odds suggest.

We feel that this matchup almost looks "too easy" from an average bettor’s perspective as many believe LA should win this game easily, only, we know that there is nothing 'easy' in sports and this is the exact type of game and situation where an upset is likely. The reward for backing the O's in this must-win game certainly outweighs the risk and just like last night's winner on Oakland, we expect Baltimore to come away with a score late and pick up the underdog victory.

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