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March 28, 2018

There is one late NBA pick tonight.

Take Phoenix Suns +10.5 spread against LA Clippers for 3% of the bankroll.

The Phoenix Suns are a bad team this year but that doesn't mean there's never value betting on them. In this particular matchup, we believe the spread is a bit inflated and presents value on the underdog. Phoenix has lost 12 games in a row and would love nothing more than to snap this ugly skid! If they can do so against a divisional opponent like the Clippers, then all the better. This game means a lot more to them than some of those other ones especially ones against Eastern conference foes. Given the way they've been spanked by their Pacific division rivals, we expect them to put up a big effort tonight. No team wants to be humiliated and this squad is no different. They've lost the first 3 games of the season series and will want to avoid being swept. 

The Clippers need every win they can get at this stage of the season. They are sitting 9th in the Western conference just below the post-season cutoff. If they are to grab the 8th seed or better, they need to win games such as this and we believe they most likely will. Having said that, it won't come easily. The Suns will be super motivated for this contest and are the more rested team. Doc Rivers' side played a closely-contested game against the Milwaukee Bucks last night and then had to hop on a late flight to the desert. When there is travel involved in a back-to-back set of games, the second night always presents a challenge, let alone when a roster is as depleted with injuries as this one. 

The Clippers' depth has been truly tested this season and tonight will be no exception. That's because they lost yet another player to injury last night. Milos Teodosic aggravated a plantar fasciatis injury that cost him 20+ games earlier this season and will sit this one out. He may be an NBA rookie but the 31-year old is a European veteran and was doing a good job of running the point with Austin Rivers and Lou Williams playing off the ball as shooting guards. Now with him out of the picture, more will be asked of the aforementioned two in terms of fascilitating plays for others while inexperienced players like Juwan Evans will also be likely called upon. 

Josh Jackson and Troy Daniels have started to find their offensive rhythm given the injuries to TJ Warren and Devin Booker and are both playing very well right now. We believe Daniels will continue to shoot from beyond the arc while Jackson will complement him by driving to the basket or settling for mid-range jumpers while occasionally draining 3's himself to keep defenses honest and make things unpredictable. Then there are players like Dragan Bender and Marquess Chriss who tend to play much better at home than on the road. Perhaps it's because they're young or perhaps due to some other reason but there's no doubt these two raise their performances at Talking Stick Resort arena as if they have something to prove to the fanbase. 

The crowd is desperate for a win given the Suns' current 12-game losing streak which is the worst active streak in the league right now! Look for the players to give them something to cheer about. While we believe they might ultimately fall short of the outright win, we do expect them to put up a big effort and be competitive in this matchup. Asking the Clippers to win this by double-digits on the road on the second night of a back-to-back is a big ask by Vegas in our opinion. We'll fade the public and take the unfancied underdogs as they cover the spread one way or another.

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