March 7, 2018
There is one pick tonight. Please note that tip-off for this game is scheduled for 2:30pm EST.
Take NC State -3 spread against Boston College for 3% of the bankroll.
The NC State Wolfpack have had a surprise season after it was predicted they would finish at the bottom of the conference. The Wolfpack have posted some impressive wins this season, as they hold victories over the likes of Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, however, they also have some head-scratching losses to the likes of UNC-Greensboro, Northern Iowa and Georgia Tech and it are those losses which have left the Wolfpack's invitation to the Big Dance, on the bubble. Their tournament hopes would suffer a huge blow with a loss in this contest to a mediocre Boston College team, which essentially makes this game a must-win for the Wolfpack.
These two teams have already met once this season, with the Wolfpack coming away with a convincing, 82-66 win in Raleigh. In that game on Feb 20th, NC State connected on 55.8 percent of its shots, including 11 of 21 (52.4 percent) on 3-pointers. That was part of a stretch where N.C. State shot 50 percent or better in five consecutive games. It was an impressively efficient run for the Wolfpack, however, it was not a pace that could have maintained. While not currently on their once torrid pace, they have remained extremely efficient with their shot selections, shooting 44.6 and 44.1 percent in its last two games which will likely pose a problem for the inconsistent offense of the Eagles.
An area where we believe the Wolfpack will be able to dominate is on the defensive side, creating turnovers. Boston College was extremely careless with the basketball this season, turning it over on 17.8% of their possessions. In their first meeting, Boston College only turned the ball over 12 times, which was impressive for them. Only one team had fewer turnovers in the last 11 games against the Wolfpack, so we don't expect a repeat performance in this contest. Against Georgia Tech on Tuesday, Boston College turned the ball over 17 times. The majority of them came in the second half when the Yellow Jackets employed a press style defense. That bodes well for the Wolfpack, who did a good job for forcing the Eagles to rush their shots in their first meeting. That style of defense should be mimicked in this contest and we expect them to force the Eagles into even more turnovers this time.
Boston College comes into this matchup with a little bit of momentum, securing a win yesterday over Georgia Tech, however, NC State is a completely different animal. The Eagles have enjoyed some success against the bottom-feeders in the conference but would need a masterful and near-perfect effort to knock off the Wolfpack in such an important contest. While they do have momentum, they are on a back-to-back and the pace at which this game should play should cause the Eagles players to tire in the second half. This one may be close for a while, but the Wolfpack will pull away in the second half and pick up the win and cover.
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