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March 4, 2018

There is one pick today.

Take Purdue -4 spread (buy the half point) against Michigan for 3% of the bankroll.

The Michigan Wolverines are no strangers to elevating their play come tournament time. Last season, a plane crash prior to their first game sparked what could be considered a "Cinderella" type run for the Wolverines enroute to the Big 10 Title and there has already been talks of some of that 'magic' returning this season. Michigan has run through this tournament, most recently coming away with an impressive win and snapping the 15-game win streak of the Michigan State Spartans. It was an impressive performance and given their history of playing in the title game, there is no question that the betting public are firmly behind the Wolverines to repeat as champions.

We wouldn't put the trophy in the Wolverines hands yet however, as they have an extremely difficult task ahead of them, and that is knocking off the Purdue Boilermakers. Let's not forget, the Boilermakers were a dark-horse to be a potential Final Four team at the beginning of the season and their play (at the time) surely looked like that. In the latter part of the season, Purdue started to struggle, which took some of the shine from them and thus skewed the public perception of the team. The opposite has happened for Michigan and we believe that can be a very dangerous proposition. At their core, Purdue is still the better overall team and proved that during the regular season. With the championship on the line, we expect to see the very best Purdue team that we have seen all season long.

Michigan has once again been a nice story and are riding a great wave of momentum, but the expectations placed on them to repeat is going to be too much for them to handle. We have seen the Wolverine offense go cold this season, and that is what we expect in this contest. Purdue is too big and athletic down low for the Wolverines to contend with, which means they are going to have to rely on their outside shooting. Purdue has solid wing defenders as well and if Michigan's outside shots aren't falling, they will have a tough time to keep pace in this contest. While we do expect a close game, since it is a championship matchup, we believe it will be Purdue who makes the critical plays at the end of the game and their work at the charity stripe in the final few possessions will give them the win and cover.

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