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June 22, 2018

There are two picks tonight.

 

#1: Take Chicago Cubs (-142) on the ML against Cincinnati Reds risking 4.26% to win 3%.
(Quintana and Castillo must start for wager to have action.)

The Chicago Cubs are coming off somewhat of a surprising loss against the Cincinnati Reds in the series opener last night and should be motivated to even things up tonight.

The Reds have been playing exceptionally well over the last few days, winning 4 straight, however, they were somewhat fortunate to win last nights matchup, scoring 6-runs in the 6th inning. That loss was just the 7th for the Cubs in their last 22 games. They were just 1 for 7 with runners in scoring position and left 10 men stranded on the night. Last night’s game was about timely hits and Cincinnati got them. We don’t expect them to be so fortunate again tonight. The Cubs should have a much easier time at the plate with Luis Castillo taking the mound.

Castillo has lost his last four starts and has posted a terrible 6.97 ERA over that span. The 25-year-old has posted only four quality starts in 15 outings this season and has surrendered a National League-high 17 home runs. Meanwhile, Jose Quintana has allowed two runs or fewer in four straight starts and five of his last six, but he's winless in his last three outings. We expect he could turn things around tonight. He threw seven innings of one-hit ball in a shutout of the Reds on May 19 and is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in three career meetings.

Th Cubs have motivation on their side tonight as well as the better overall pitcher. They should win this one fairly easily and this is a solid price to lay in this situation.

 

#2: Take Boston Red Sox (-138) on the ML against Seattle Mariners risking 4.14% to win 3%.
(Wright and Leblanc must start for wager to have action.)

This is a revenge matchup not only between these two teams, but between the pitchers as well. These teams recently met in Seattle in a matchup where the Mariners managed to come away with a narrow 1-0 victory behind a stellar performance from Wade Leblanc. With Seattle inning that first battle, we expect this is the matchup the Red Sox get their revenge.

Leblanc had (arguably) the performance of his career back on 6/16, where he went 7.7 innings, giving up just 2 hits (0 earned runs) while striking out 9. It was certainly an impressive performance, and a lot of things happened to go right for the veteran in that contest. We just don't believe fortune will continue to be on his side this go-around.

While he took the loss, Steven Wright had an impressive performance of his own, going 7 innings, giving up just 5 hits and a single earned run, which happened to be the difference in the game. Wright was able to navigate the Seattle lineup rather efficiently and do so in a hostile environment. With this game now being played in the confines of Fenway Park, we wouldn't be surprised to see Wright duplicate that performance tonight.

Both teams come into this matchup struggling just a bit, however, the Red Sox saw signs of life in their series finally against the Twins, exploding for 9 runs on 16 hits. Seattle meanwhile has lost 5 of 7, including four straight. This is the Red Sox opportunity to turn their recent performances around and what better way to do so than to start with this revenge contest. The value is on Boston in this one.




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