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June 21, 2018

There is one pick today.


Take San Diego Padres (+137) on the ML against San Francisco Giants risking 3% to win 4.11%.
(Ross and Bumgarner must start for wager to have action.)

Although the San Diego Padres continue to underperform this season, this is a matchup where we do feel they have the advantage.

The Giants will send their lefty, Madison Bumgarner to the mound tonight. Bumgarner has not been the same pitcher since returning from his injury in early June. He is 0-2 with a 4.67 ERA in his three starts. He has also uncharacteristically struggled against the Padres and has not beat them since May 17, 2016, going 0-4 in his last 6 starts against the Friars.

Tyson Ross is expected to make the start tonight and has pitched well this season, going 5-4 on with a solid 3.51 ERA. Ross averages exactly one strikeout per innings and has only thrown less than five innings once this season. Ross has also silenced the Giants lineup in two starts this season, conceding only two runs (one earned) in 12 innings.

As good as Ross has been as a starter, where they Padres have really shined, has been with their bullpen and that is where we believe San Diego's biggest advantage will be held. They are led by closer, Brad Hand, who has 21 saves and a 2.43 ERA through 34 games, while Kirby Yates has been unstoppable in his own right, holding a 3-0 record and 0.93 ERA in 30 appearances. All four of the most used Padres pitchers have a WHIP of 1.05 or lower.

Both teams have been wildly inconsistent offensively, but the pitching edge in this contest has to side with San Diego. As long as Ross doesn't pitch his worst game of the season, the Friars should be able to generate enough offense against a slumping Bumgarner and pull off the somewhat surprising outright victory and reward their backer handsomely with a hefty underdog win.

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