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June 19, 2018

There is one pick today.

 

Take New York Mets (+143) on the ML against Colorado Rockies risking 3% to win 4.29%.
(Vargas and Marquez must start for wager to have action.)

The Colorado Rockies were the model of consistency for much of the early part of the season, but they have hit a rough patch as of late, picking up just two wins in their last 10 outings. The Rockies have also uncharacteristically struggled at home in Coors field this season, a place that had normally stricken fear in the hearts of their opponents. They are just 11-20 at home this season and have dropped 8 consecutive contests, including last night's 12-2 drubbing at the hands of the Mets.

The Rockies fortunes might now get any better tonight as they hand the ball to one of their most struggling starters this season in German Marquez. Marquez has struggled this season and has become one of the more hittable pitchers in the league. He is just 4-7 record and a 5.13 ERA in 14 starts and like most of the Colorado staff, his ERA has only inflated in June. He is 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in three starts this month and has not given up less than four runs in a start.

The Mets will counter by sending veteran lefty Jason Vargas to the hill. Looking at his overall record and ERA, it would be a fair assumption to say that Vargas has struggled this season, however, he has pitched much better recently, sporting a 3.00 ERA over his last three starts. Vargas is currently battling for a spot in the rotation during Noah Syndergaard’s absence. Syndergaard’s lingering finger injury has given Vargas a chance to build on his recent success and is likely a big reason the veteran has been pitching much better as of late. Vargas won't get many more opportunities to stay in the rotation, so the pressure to perform is likely fueling his motivation to pitch well. 

The Mets offense has been downright awful this season, but they have seemingly started to find their groove. they come into this matchup having won 3 straight, while averaging over 7 runs per game in those contests. Even though they have struggled offensively at times, there isn't a team in the league that could not put runs up on this Rockies pitching staff. We expect them to keep their momentum going, get to Marquez early and hopefully not allow the bullpen to salt the game away. The Rockies should not be this big of a favorite given the way their pitching staff has performed. The value is on the road team in this one.




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