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June 17, 2018

There is one pick today and it is a play on the Run Line.

 

Take Boston Red Sox (+120) on the RL (-1.5 runs) against Seattle Mariners risking 3% to win 3.6%.
(Rodriguez and Leake must start for wager to have action.)

The Boston Red Sox allowed a late-game collapse in Game 2 of this 4-game series and we had expected a bounce back showing from them in Game 3 behind the arm of Steven Wright. We were correct in our prediction that Wright would have a stellar showing, as he went 7 innings, allowing just 5 hits and a single run. Unfortunately, a single run was all it took for Seattle, as veteran Wade Leblanc pitched the game of his career. LeBlanc worked 7 2/3 scoreless innings - retiring 22 batters in a row after allowing a single to begin the game and Seattle got all the offense it needed when Nelson Cruz hit the last of three singles in the third inning to drive in the only run in Saturday's 1-0 victory. It was another tough loss for the Red Sox, their second in a row, and with this being the series finale, we expect this will be the game where the offense shines.

Boston began its 10-game road trip earlier this week with a three-game sweep of Baltimore before handing Seattle a taste of its own medicine with a one-run victory on Thursday, but back-to-back defeats have caused them to fall one game behind the New York Yankees in the AL East. Outside of a six-run third inning in Friday's 7-6 setback, the Red Sox's offense has been virtually nonexistent at Safeco Field, scoring a total of two runs, including none over the last 15 innings. The fact that the Red Sox bats have been silenced is somewhat out of the norm for a team that ranks in the top 5 offensively in the league. Seattle has done a good job of keeping the Boston bats in check, but we believe that changes this afternoon when Mike Leake steps to the mound.

Leake has pitched well as of late, producing five consecutive quality starts, however, we do believe the veteran is pitching a bit above his head. He had been disastrous in April, going 3-2 with a 6.48 ERA in April. He also hasn't had much success against Boston in his career, going 0-2 6.56 ERA in four career outings against the Red Sox. His team is winless against the Red Sox when he has taken the mound. He also managed to give up 10 runs in two starts versus the Sox a season ago. While he has been impressive, we expect him to become unraveled in this series finale this afternoon.

This is a matchup that should favor the Red Sox. They have been extremely impressive in games that are played during the day, going 17-5 overall while scoring an average of 5 runs per game in this situation. The Red Sox need this victory much more than the Mariners do and with two poor showings in a row, we don't expect a third. This is the game where the Red Sox offense breaks out and there is value in expecting them to not only come away with the victory, but to do so by more than a single run.




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