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June 13, 2018

There is one pick today. 


Take Detroit Tigers (+135) on the ML against Minnesota Twins risking 3% to win 4.05%.
(Boyd and Berrios must start for wager to have action.)

Both of these teams have failed to live up to expectations this season, especially the Detroit Tigers. At 31-37 on the season, with their talented lineup, there is no question that this team expected to be better than 6-games under .500. That being said, we do believe they have the better starting pitcher on the mound tonight, despite being listed as hefty underdogs.

Matt Boyd has pitched well for the Tigers this season and has fared much better than his 4-4 overall record shows. He has a respectable 3.20 ERA in 12 starts this year, including going 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA in his 6 starts at home. Boyd has also had a fair amount of success against the Twins in his career, going 5-3 overall with a 4.01 ERA in 12 career starts.

His counterpart, Jose Berrios, has a much more appealing record at 7-5 overall on the season, but his ERA is nearly half a run worse than Boyd's. He has a 3.66 ERA in 13 starts for the Twins, including 2-3 with a 3.72 ERA in 6 games on the road. Berrios has the appearance of a nice overall record against the Tigers, going 2-1 in 5 career starts, however, he has been somewhat fortunate in regard to run-support given his 9.00 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in those appearances.

This one is likely going to come down to run-support. Boyd hasn't gotten much while Berrios has been extremely fortunate in that department. Offense isn't something that can be relied on each and every game and we believe that is something Berrios will find out tonight. Boyd should once again have success against the Twins and as long as the Detroit offense provides him with a couple of runs of support; that should be enough for Boyd to put his team in a position to win this game as a generous home underdog.

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