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June 8, 2018

There is one NBA pick tonight.  

Take Cleveland Cavaliers +5 spread (buy the half point) against Golden State Warriors for 3% of the bankroll.

Before the Finals began, I was asked who would win the series and in how many games and my answer was Golden State in five. We’ll see if that happens but with the Warriors comfortably riding a 3-0 lead, I suspect that is a real possibility. Look for the desperate Cavaliers to find a way to win this game even though it’ll likely be a close one to force Game 5! Then with the series shifts back to Oakland, expect the defending champions to secure another NBA title. 

This may well be LeBron James’ final game in a Cleveland uniform. The prodigal son returned home after a trophy-laden few years with the Miami Heat and did what he promised, bring the Cavaliers’ their first ever championship! He brought joy to his home-state as a native of Akron and has taken this team to the Finals in every year since his return. His list of accomplishments, are at this point, second to none and for us, he is the greatest player of all time! Having said all that, this is the worst version of the Cavaliers that has gone to the Finals and the reason we thought the Warriors would ultimately triumph and with relative ease is that they simply have too many weapons. Whereas Cleveland badly needs LeBron to play out of his mind every game and they may still lose, the Warriors can win games even with Klay Thompson or Steph Curry (or even both) play badly. That’s because Kevin Durant is there to bail them out and if KD is having a poor game, then the Splash Brothers get the job done. Having said all that, in this particular matchup, the edge lies with the hosts.

LeBron James won’t want his Cleveland legacy to end with an embarrassing 4-0 sweep! And he certainly doesn’t want his Cavaliers’ career to end with back-to-back home defeats! But this isn’t so much about what he will do as it is about his teammates. James plays his heart out every game and is a man possessed! It’s a matter of how his teammates will react and how well they will play. And we believe on this particular occasion, they will rise to the challenge. Every player on this team has seen how hard he works, how he leads by example and how he’s almost single-handedly carried this team on his shoulders. They don’t want to let him down. They know what’s at stake. They know this might be his last game before the impending free-agency where he may well decide to take his talents elsewhere. His teammates love him and want him to go out on a high, not off a 4-0 sweep or straight up losses at home. This is a game where we expect some of the role players, especially the veterans to pick up their game.

Kyle Korver has been a non-factor so far in the first 3 games of this series but we suspect that might change tonight. The Warriors have done an excellent job of staying with him when he fights off screens for those catch-and-shoot 3’s! They’ve hardly given him any room to maneuver. It wouldn’t surprise us if there were some defensive lapses in tonight’s matchup however. Look for him to finally find some room and deliver a few clutch 3-pointers that could swing momentum in Cleveland’s favor. Defensive miscommunication is inevitable at some point and with Rodney Hood being another factor for Golden State to focus on, it could just leave Korver slightly more open than he has been so far in the Finals. Whether he gets it done or not, we think Cleveland will give it everything they have tonight to stave off elimination. It should be noted that they are a perfect 4-0 in this situation this year, when facing elimination! Even if they won’t win outright, this one should be a closely-contested game where the five points could come into play and therefore prove very precious. Take the points with the capable underdogs as all the value is on them.

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