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June 7, 2018

There is one pick tonight.  

Take Baltimore Orioles (+127) on the ML against Toronto Blue Jays risking 3% to win 3.81%.
(Hess and Garcia must start for wager to have action.)

The Toronto Blue Jays have been struggling this season, especially at home. They are just 1-10 in their last 11 games at the Rogers Center and wasted a quality pitching performance by Sam Gaviglio last night. Gaviglio scattered just 3 hits over seven scoreless innings for the Jays, but the offense failed to get anything going as they struck out 15 times in the 3-0 loss.

David Hess will be getting the spot-start tonight on the mound for the Orioles. Hess has pitched well this season, going 2-2 with a serviceable 3.47 ERA through four contests. Hess sustained a hard-luck defeat in his most recent start against the Washington Nationals. Bryce Harper hit a 2-run third inning homerun which accounted for his lone damage among four hits in six innings of a 2-0 setback versus Washington. Hess, who's a rookie, took over for a struggling Chris Tillman in the rotation, and has helped the bullpen by pitching six or more innings in three of his first four starts. Hess threw a first-pitch strike to 17 of the 23 batters he faced to get ahead in the count against the Nationals. This kid has a lot of potential and against a struggling Blue Jays team, he could shine in this outing.

Veteran Jaime Garcia will take the mound for the Jays and given the way he has pitched this season, it would be fair to say that the 31-year-old's best days may be behind him. He is just 2-4 on the season with an unflattering 6.47 ERA. He was rattled for 4 runs on seven hits in a season-low 1 and 2/3 innings in his most recent start against the Detroit Tigers. He has allowed his opponents to bat a robust .291 against him this season. Over his last three starts he has been even worse. His ERA has ballooned up to a disappointing 8.02, while he has lasted just an average of 4 innings over that span.

We believe the Orioles will have the edge on the mound tonight and the oddsmakers have listed the O/U on this game at 10.5 runs, which means that they are expecting a fair amount of scoring in this game. If that is the case, we feel it is more likely that Garcia continues to give up runs at a blistering pace and that Hess outduels his counterpart tonight. As long as the Orioles offense doesn't go cold, they should continue Toronto's woes at home and reward their backers with a nice underdog victory.

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