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June 5, 2018

There is one pick tonight and it is a play on the run-line.  

Take St. Louis Cardinals (+110) on the RL ( -1.5 runs) against Miami Marlins risking 3% to win 3.30%.
(Martinez and Urena must start for wager to have action.)

The Marlins have been playing some bad ball of late and I just can’t see them turning it around in this series. Jose Urena is 0-7 with a 4.41 ERA on the year so far and the team are 0-12 in his starts this year so far! It doesn’t take a math major to know that is all kinds of wrong. The cards will be sending out Carlos Martinez in his first start since coming off the DL and he is 3-2 with a 1.62 ERA on the year, including 1-1 with 1.48 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in five starts here at home.

While it can be somewhat worrisome when a pitcher makes their first start back from the DL, however, in this matchup, Martinez will have the luxury of facing the worst offense in the league in this matchup. Prior to his stint on the DL, Martinez allowed one or no runs in six of his eight starts and had struck out 47 in 50 innings while holding opposing hitters to a .183 batting average and conceding just a single home run. Given the lack of pop in the Marlins lineup, Martinez should have a solid showing on the mound tonight.

The Marlins offense is mediocre at best, and their pitching hasn't been much better, giving up an average of 6 runs per game on the road. Miami has been outscored 41-14 in their last six games and by 2.68 runs per game on the road. They are also just 1-6 on their 10-game road swing after being swept in a three-game set at Arizona. They have scored just 14 runs during their six-game skid while batting an abysmal .195 (8 for 41) with runners in scoring position.

As long as Martinez doesn't have an absolutely terrible showing on the mound, the Cardinals should win this game and do so easily. If they win, it will likely be by more than a single run, which places the value on the run-line tonight.

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