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June 4, 2018

There is one pick tonight.
 

Take Arizona Diamondbacks (-101) on the ML against San Francisco Giants risking 3.03% to win 3%.
(Godley and Holland must start for wager to have action.)

Derek Holland is expected to take the mound tonight and it is fair to say that his best years as a pitcher are behind him. He comes into this matchup 3-6 with a 4.94 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, over 58.1 innings of work this season. Control has been a major issue for Holland this season given his 48:24 strikeout to walk ratio. His velocity is not what it once was, and hitters have been catching up with the veteran. Holland is just 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, five walks and nine strikeouts over 17 innings in his last three starts. Even in his lone win, he was fortunate given that he still gave up 4 earned runs but was gifted quite a bit of run support in that contest. He lost his lone career start against the Diamondbacks, which came in this ballpark back on April 9. Holland worked six innings, allowing two runs on two hits with one walk and eight strikeouts in a 2-1 Giants loss.

Zack Godley has seemingly taken a step back himself this season and comes into this contest at 5-4 with a 4.38 ERA. He has been somewhat unfortunate this season when it comes to giving up runs, however, his 59 strikeouts over his 61 innings of work shows just how dominant he can be at times on the mound. He is 2-1 in his career against the Giants and has racked up 20 strikeouts over his 17-career innings. He has already faced this San Francisco lineup once this season, tossing seven scoreless innings allowing just 4 hits while striking out 9 in a 2-1 Arizona win. We expect him to have a similar amount of success tonight.

After a rough stretch, the Diamondbacks appears to be finally righting the ship, having collected win in 5 of their last 6 matchups. They have had quite a bit of success against the Giants in recent meetings, winning 11 of the last 17 head-to-head. They have also taken 4 of the last 7 games played at AT&T Park. Holland simply cannot be trusted on the mound not to give up runs and with the DBacks bats warming up, these are small odds to lay. The value is with Arizona in this contest.




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