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July 31, 2018

There is one pick tonight.

 

Take Texas Rangers (+166) on the ML against Arizona Diamondbacks risking 3% to win 4.98%
(Colon and Godley must start for wager to have action)

The Texas Rangers have been red-hot over the last couple of days and followed up their 3-game weekend sweep of the Astros in Houston by taking game 1 over Arizona 9-5 last night for their 4th straight win. They have been clicking on offense, averaging 7.4 runs per game over their last seven games, and given how well they have been seeing the ball as of late, we see no reason they can't keep their momentum going in Game 2 tonight.

The Arizona Diamondbacks may be the overall better team this season and do have the advantage of playing at home, however, it is hard to fully trust the Diamondbacks as hefty favorites given the fact that they are playing .500 ball over their last 18 games. Starter Zack Godley has also been shaky at best this season. He may have an 11-6 overall record but owns a 4.77 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 21 starts and a 6.60 ERA in his last 3 home starts in the month of July. Given the fact that Texas has seen the likes of Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers recently (and had great success against them, scoring 22 runs), they should have a much easier time at the plate tonight against Godley.

Bartolo Colon currently has 245 career wins which puts him in a tie with Dennis Martinez for the most ever career wins from a Latin-American born pitcher. This season Colon has a solid 1.18 WHIP in his 10 road starts and has pitched well when on the highway. In 8 of his 10 road starts this season, he has produced a quality outing, going at least 6 innings, and giving up 3 earned runs or less. He has not faced Arizona this season, but a year ago, he compiled a 2.45 ERA in his two starts against them. There is no question that Colon's best days are behind him, however, we believe this could be a solid matchup for the veteran.

 If Colon can manage to mitigate the damage in the early innings, the Texas bats should give him a chance to grab that elusive milestone he has been seeking. Given how well the Rangers have been playing, there is a lot of value backing them tonight at this price.




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