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July 28, 2018

There are two picks tonight. 

 

#1: Take Philadelphia Phillies (-121) on the ML against Cincinnati Reds risking 3.63% to win 3%
(Velasquez and Harvey must start for wager to have action)

All eyes are going to be on Matt Harvey tonight, in what is expected to be his final start in a Cincinnati Reds uniform. All of the speculation is that Harvey is going to be traded prior to his next start and we believe that is going to give the Phillies an advantage tonight.

Harvey realizes that this is going to be his last time pitching for the Reds, so we don't expect his mindset will be in a place which will allow him to give his best. This is a similar situation to anyone's last day of work prior to a much-needed vacation. They are mentally checked out; and that is exactly what we believe Harvey will be, especially after his last performance which saw him give up 8 runs on 8 hits, which ended his 4-game unbeaten streak. While many may expect a bounce back, this is simply a bad spot for Harvey tonight.

Meanwhile, Vince Velasquez has been pitching well for the Phillies, and notched two victories in a three-day span over the past week, blanking San Diego on two hits over seven innings last Sunday, before pitching the 16th inning two days later in a win over the Los Angeles Dodgers. He closed out the first half by shutting out the New York Mets on two hits over six innings and has a 14-inning scoreless streak. Velasquez has also fared extremely well on the road this season, with a 2.42 ERA on the highway.

The Phillies lost last night's game which puts them in line for a bounce back performance tonight. They should also have added motivation heading into this contest knowing that they have shored up one of their glaring weaknesses and added some instant offense to their rotation by managing a trade for Mets' Asdrubal Cabrera. This is a big move for the Phillies and should only add to their advantages in this contest. These are good odds to lay with the road team in this one.

 

#2: Take Seattle Mariners (+112) on the ML against LA Angels risking 3% to win 3.36%
(Hernandez and Barria must start for wager to have action)

There is no question that Felix Hernandez is not quite the pitcher he once was, however, the veteran should hold a distinct advantage on the mound tonight against his counterpart, Jaime Barria. Barria has gone 0-6 in seven starts since recording his last victory. I n his most recent contest, he surrendered four runs on four hits and three walks in a loss against the offensively inconsistent Chicago White Sox. If Chicago can put runs up on Barria, the Mariners should have no issues tonight. Barria has also made three of his last seven starts against Seattle, losing all three and has an ERA of 4.11 in those outings.

Hernandez is no stranger to these Angels as he has 52 career starts against this team and sports an impressive 3.43 ERA and WHIP of 1.173 during his career. The Mariners lost a close one, 4-3 last night and should be in line for a bounce back performance tonight. Seattle needs to continue piling up wins. They are currently 5 games back of the division leading Houston Astros but hold just a narrow 1-game lead in the second and final Wildcard spot. They need to win game like these if they want to keep pace for a postseason berth.

Seattle has smashed right-handed pitching this season and has been a very strong team when coming off a loss. Meanwhile the Angels have struggled at home when listed as small favorites, going just 5-12 in this situation. All things line up tonight for Seattle to pull out the victory, and at these odds, the value is in backing them tonight.




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